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What Should Korean Military Do to Respond to China’s Gray Zone Strategy?: Focusing on Response to Asymmetric Approach at Sea 面对中国灰色地带战略,韩国军队该如何应对?:重点应对海上不对称做法
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.153
Jung-Joon Choi
In this article, I discuss China’s Gray Zone strategy, which involves increasing their naval power and using asymmetric tactics to become a rising maritime power. After examining this strategy, I then discuss the sources of conflict between South Korea and China, as well as our military’s response plan. The article also mentions that although South Korea and China established diplomatic relations in 1992, there are still many unresolved issues between two countries. Especially, issues such as the demarcation of the western sea border, development of the continental shelf, marine scientific research activities, and marine environmental conservation are still unresolved. Meanwhile, China is increasing its naval power and pursuing a Gray Zone strategy at sea using its Coast Guard(CCG) and Maritime Militia(PAFMM). Gray zone refers to the ambiguous middle ground between war and peace, and it refers to an indeterminate intermediate zone that does not belong to a specific area. China is pursuing a strategy that undermines the existing order by using gray zone operations in the maritime gray zones of countries with maritime territorial disputes and un-demarcated maritime boundaries in the East China Sea and South China Sea. By using non-military means, China is pursuing a “fait accompli” strategy through numerical superiority, gradualism, and repetitive activities while preventing the situation from escalating into armed conflict. China uses its Coast Guard and Maritime Militia as the main means of its gray zone strategy, which are essentially China’s second naval force and perform various missions on behalf of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. In Korea, there are many factors that cause conflicts with China in the ocean, such as the undefined Exclusive Economic Zone(EEZ) boundary and illegal fishing by Chinese vessels. China pursues a gray zone strategy to gain an advantageous position in future negotiations with Korea. Therefore, the Korean military must establish the following measures to protect its maritime interests. The response strategy below is based on a correct understanding of the gray zone strategy, which is part of China’s asymmetric strategy. First, in the event of a maritime dispute with China, governance should be established to integrate and operate available assets. Second, a cooperative system should be established to prevent accidental conflicts between Korea and China. Third, a naval forward base in the West Sea should be built to curb China’s eastward movement. Fourth, strategies should be sought to respond in conjunction with allies. Fifth, the military’s countermeasures and tactics for responding to the gray zone strategy should be developed.
在这篇文章中,我将讨论中国的灰色地带战略,包括增加海军力量和使用不对称战术来成为一个正在崛起的海上大国。在分析了这一战略之后,我将讨论韩国和中国之间冲突的根源,以及我们军队的应对计划。文章还提到,虽然韩国和中国在1992年建立了外交关系,但两国之间仍有许多未解决的问题。特别是西部海域划界、大陆架开发、海洋科学研究、海洋环境保护等问题仍未得到解决。与此同时,中国正在增强其海军力量,并利用其海岸警卫队(CCG)和海上民兵(PAFMM)在海上推行灰色地带战略。灰色地带是指战争与和平之间模糊的中间地带,是指不属于特定区域的不确定的中间地带。中国在东海和南海存在海上领土争端和未划界的国家的海上灰色地带实施灰色地带行动,这是一种破坏现有秩序的战略。通过使用非军事手段,中国正在通过数量优势、渐进主义和重复活动来追求“既成事实”战略,同时防止局势升级为武装冲突。中国将海警和海上民兵作为其灰色地带战略的主要手段,它们本质上是中国的第二支海军力量,代表中国人民解放军海军执行各种任务。在韩国,与中国发生冲突的原因有很多,如未确定的专属经济区(EEZ)边界、中国船只的非法捕捞等。中国为了在今后与韩国的谈判中占据有利地位,采取了灰色地带战略。因此,韩国军队必须制定以下保护海洋利益的措施。下面的应对策略是基于对灰色地带战略的正确理解,这是中国不对称战略的一部分。首先,在与中国发生海上争端的情况下,应该建立治理机制,整合和运营可用资产。第二,为防止韩中发生意外冲突,应建立合作机制。第三,在西海建立海军前沿基地,遏制中国的东进。第四,应寻求与盟国共同应对的战略。第五,制定军队应对灰色地带战略的对策和战术。
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引用次数: 0
푸틴의 성과와 고난의 1990년대 재조명 普京的成果与苦难的90年代重新回顾
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.125
Kenneth William Wilson
The Putin regime has used comparisons with the 1990s to create political support and legitimacy for Vladimir Putin, by suggesting that life in Russia has become better since then because of Putin. Comparisons with the 1990s in absolute terms, however, fail to take account of the much more favourable structural conditions that have pertained since Putin came to power. This article avoids this problem by looking at Russia’s performance in the 1990s and thereafter in relative terms(i.e. in comparison with the other 14 states of the Former Soviet Union) rather than absolute terms. The analysis shows that Russia, in relative terms, has performed no better under Putin than in the 1990s, a finding that constitutes an indictment of Putin’s leadership rather than a legitimation of it.
普京政权利用与上世纪90年代的比较来为弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)创造政治支持和合法性,暗示自那以后俄罗斯的生活因为普京而变得更好。然而,与上世纪90年代的绝对值比较,没有考虑到自普京上台以来存在的有利得多的结构性条件。本文通过考察俄罗斯在20世纪90年代及其后的相对表现(即经济增长)来避免这个问题。与前苏联其他14个国家相比),而不是绝对条款。分析显示,相对而言,俄罗斯在普京领导下的表现并不比上世纪90年代好,这一发现构成了对普京领导的控诉,而不是对其合法性的认可。
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引用次数: 0
The United States and China Falling into the Thucydides’s Trap?: Learning from Defensive Realism 中美陷入修昔底德陷阱?:从防御现实主义中学习
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.33
Jihwan Hwang
This article evaluates the possibility of ‘Thucydides’s Trap’ between the U.S. and China through defensive realism. The possibility of U.S.-China conflict has been mainly discussed in the frame of offensive realism. It argues that if China’s rise continues, it will cause serious military conflict between the two. However, it is unclear whether the crisis will turn into an actual conflict. Defensive realism provides an alternative perspective. However, the interpretation by defensive realism in contrast to offensive realism has not been highlighted. Considering the importance of defensive realism, there is a theoretical gap for the most important global issue. Most realist explanations predict U.S.-China relations as serious conflicts, but defensive realism posits that it does not necessarily have to be pessimistic. This article draws the concepts of a state’s motivation and type, status quo, security dilemma, and grand bargain, reinterprets U.S.-China relations, and presents alternative policies.
本文从防御现实主义的角度分析了中美之间发生“修昔底德陷阱”的可能性。中美冲突的可能性主要是在进攻性现实主义框架下讨论的。它认为,如果中国继续崛起,将导致两国之间发生严重的军事冲突。然而,目前还不清楚这场危机是否会演变成一场真正的冲突。防御性现实主义提供了另一种视角。然而,防御性现实主义与进攻性现实主义的对比解释却没有得到重视。考虑到防御性现实主义的重要性,在最重要的全球性问题上存在理论缺口。大多数现实主义的解释都预测美中关系会发生严重冲突,但防御性现实主义认为这并不一定是悲观的。本文从国家的动机和类型、现状、安全困境和大交易等概念出发,重新解读了中美关系,并提出了可供选择的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Political Opposition and Government’s Responses in Kazakhstan’s Authoritarian Regime 哈萨克斯坦专制政权中的政治反对与政府反应
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.85
Tae Yon Kim
The aim of this article is to give a diachronic analysis of the processes in which political opposition and government’s responses towards it have unfolded in Kazakhstan’s authoritarian regime. The first generation of political opposition in Kazakhstan was the social movements that were organized on the initiative of intelligentsia from the late Soviet period to the early 1990s and raised national and environmental issues. Nazarbayev’s government responded to this type of political opposition with repression and co-optation. The second generation of political opposition in the form of a profit-seeking party arose from the late 1990s to the early and mid 2000s. The responses of Nazarbayev’s government towards it were strong repression and offensive discourse. Since 2010s the third generation of political opposition in the new form of a mass protest has been rising up and Kazakhstan’s government has been responding to it with repression and offensive discourse as before. But the same way of responses as before in different conditions of state-society relations has not achieved the effect of stabilization of the regime.
本文的目的是对哈萨克斯坦专制政权中政治反对派和政府对此的反应进行历时分析。哈萨克斯坦的第一代政治反对派是苏联后期到90年代初知识界自发组织的社会运动,他们提出了国家和环境问题。纳扎尔巴耶夫政府对这类政治反对派的回应是镇压和拉拢。20世纪90年代末至21世纪初中期,出现了以营利政党为形式的第二代政治在野党。纳扎尔巴耶夫政府对此的反应是强力镇压和攻击性言论。自2010年以来,以大规模抗议新形式出现的第三代政治反对派不断崛起,哈萨克斯坦政府一如既往地以镇压和攻击性言论作为回应。但是,在不同的国家-社会关系条件下,同样的应对方式并没有达到稳定政权的效果。
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引用次数: 0
A Study of Regional Security Institution in East Asia: U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Change of the San Francisco System 东亚地区安全制度研究:美国印太战略与旧金山体系变迁
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.5
Hyun-seok Yu
This thesis seeks to understand the causes of changes in the regional security landscape currently occurring in the Indo-Pacific region and analyze the impact of these changes on existing security systems in East Asia region. The US Indo-Pacific strategy which has been pursued in response to the rise of China and its challenges to US influence in the Indo-Pacific region, has precipitated the fundamental changes in the San Francisco System established in the Asia-Pacific region after World War II. The US-centered bilateral alliance network, which has been the backbone of the San Francisco system, continues to be maintained, but the US-led alliance system is reorganized in a way that allies are given new roles to respond to China’s multi-faced challenges. In addition, multilateral institutions, which has played a complementary role, seem to play a key role in the Indo-Pacific strategy along with bilateral alliance networks. Along with this, active cooperation and coordination with the off-shore security system symbolized by cooperation with NATO is also a significant departure from the existing San Francisco system. The emergence of a new security system in the Indo-Pacific region is bound to have a significant impact on the foreign strategies of major countries in the region, including Korea. Although this is a challenge for Korea’s foreign strategy the flourishing of minilateral cooperations also means that a space has been opened for Korea to play a meaningful role in minilateral cooperation in this region. The existing ASEAN-centered multilateral institutions which led regional cooperation in the East Asian region, is facing significant challenges. It was under pressure to find its place in the competition with newly emerging mini/multilateral cooperations and to improve ASEAN’s effectiveness and relevance itself.
本文旨在了解当前印太地区安全格局变化的原因,并分析这些变化对东亚地区现有安全体系的影响。美国为应对中国崛起及其对美国在印太地区影响力的挑战而推行的印太战略,促成了二战后在亚太地区建立的“旧金山体系”发生根本性变化。以美国为中心的双边同盟网络作为“旧金山体系”的支柱继续保持,但以美国为主导的同盟体系进行了重组,盟国被赋予了新的角色,以应对中国面临的多重挑战。此外,发挥互补作用的多边机构似乎与双边同盟网络一起,在印太战略中发挥着关键作用。与此同时,与以北约合作为标志的海上安全体系的积极合作与协调,也是对现有旧金山体系的重大背离。印度太平洋地区新安保体系的形成,必将对包括韩国在内的该地区主要国家的对外战略产生重大影响。虽然这对韩国的外交战略是一个挑战,但多边合作的蓬勃发展也意味着韩国在该地区的多边合作中发挥有意义的作用的空间已经打开。现有以东盟为中心、引领东亚区域合作的多边机制面临重大挑战。它受到压力,必须在与新出现的小型/多边合作的竞争中找到自己的位置,并提高东盟本身的效力和相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Importance of Having Allies with Reconnaissance Satellites Capabilities for Successful Extended Deterrence 拥有侦察卫星能力的盟友对成功扩展威慑的重要性
Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.2.59
young sang Lee, W. Kim
A revolution in military affairs(RMA) is expected to have a significant impact on militarized interstate disputes. Recent researches show that ballistic missiles, unmanned attack vehicles, and drones affect many aspects of militarized disputes. However, there is few research on the effect of the RMA on extended deterrence. In this study we analyze the effect of military surveillance technology on extended deterrence. In particular, we focus on the presence or absence of allies with reconnaissance satellites because reconnaissance satellite is a technology that can effectively alleviate uncertainty of information compared to other reconnaissance assets. Considering Fearon’s(1995) argument that wars occur because of uncertainty of information and commitment problem, reconnaissance satellites may be able to alleviate these problems with satellites characteristics such as high durability, stability, and few international legal restriction. Results of this study demonstrate that states having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities are less likely to be targeted in large scale militarized disputes with 100 or more casualties than states without having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities.
军事革命(RMA)有望对军事化的国家间争端产生重大影响。最近的研究表明,弹道导弹、无人攻击机和无人机影响着军事争端的许多方面。然而,关于军事革命对延伸威慑影响的研究却很少。在本研究中,我们分析了军事监视技术对扩展威慑的影响。我们特别关注盟国是否拥有侦察卫星,因为与其他侦察资产相比,侦察卫星是一种可以有效减轻信息不确定性的技术。考虑到Fearon(1995)的观点,战争的发生是因为信息的不确定性和承诺问题,侦察卫星可能能够缓解这些问题,卫星的特点,如高耐用性,稳定性和很少的国际法律限制。本研究的结果表明,与没有侦察卫星能力的盟国相比,拥有侦察卫星能力的盟国不太可能成为造成100人或更多伤亡的大规模军事化争端的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Depolarizing Effect of Ranked Choice Voting?: Implications of the 2022 Alaska Mid-term Elections 排序选择投票的去极化效应?: 2022年阿拉斯加中期选举的影响
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.1.29
Seong-Ho Lim
This article evaluates the ranked choice voting(RCV) system Alaskan voters used in the 2022 mid-term elections. It examines the significances of the new electoral system in regards to American politics and also for other countries including South Korea. Following today’s central talking point on RCV, this article focuses on its depolarizing effect and pro-centrist trait. The process and result of 2022 Alaska elections, in which a moderate Democrat(Peltola) won a House seat and a moderate Republican(Murkowski) won a Senate seat, indicate a positive role of RCV in reducing polarized confrontations and promoting centrist moderation. The future of RCV, however, is far from optimistic, given some political obstacles against adopting it nationwide or worldwide.
本文对2022年中期选举中阿拉斯加选民使用的排序选择投票(RCV)制度进行了评价。它探讨了新选举制度对美国政治以及包括韩国在内的其他国家的意义。在今天关于RCV的中心话题之后,本文将重点讨论其去极化效应和亲中间派特征。2022年阿拉斯加州选举的过程和结果显示,温和的民主党人(佩尔托拉)赢得了众议院席位,温和的共和党人(穆尔科夫斯基)赢得了参议院席位,这表明RCV在减少两极化对抗和促进中间派温和方面发挥了积极作用。然而,考虑到在全国或全球范围内采用RCV的一些政治障碍,RCV的未来远非乐观。
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引用次数: 0
Regionalist Voting Behavior in Administrative Border Areas: Focusing on the Yeongnam-Honam border area 行政边界地区的地区主义投票行为——以岭南-湖南边境地区为例
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.1.85
Jung Heui Park, J. M. Lee
This paper examines the regionalist voting behavior in the geographically adjacent Yeongnam-Honam border area, although the administrative districts at the metropolitan level are different. More specifically, this study aims to empirically verify the regionalist voting relaxation phenomenon in the Yeongnam-Honam border area, where emotional communication is possible through daily life sharing and various friendly exchanges. To do so, collective data are examined with counting data for each voting district for presidential and general elections held in Korea since 2000, and voter support patterns of regional dominant parties in the region are analyzed. As a result of the analysis of the collective data, First of all, it was possible to verify the regionalist voting relaxation phenomenon withdrawing from support for regional dominant parties in 15 of the 26 Eups and Myeons as the subject of analysis of the Yeongnam-Honam border area belonging to 9 Sis and Guns. Through this, it was validated that “Honam in Yeongnam, Yeongnam in Honam” actually exists. However, it was analyzed that this regionallist voting relaxation phenomenon did not affect between neighboring Eups and Myeons. Second of all, it was confirmed that the possibility that various friendly affairs and geographical or topographical influences could affect regionalist voting behavior. The intensity of relaxation phenomenon was strong in which exchanges such as sisterhood relationships and friendly activities between neighboring Eups and Myeons were held, or in areas without topographical obstacles such as mountains and rivers.
本文研究了地理上相邻的岭南-湖南边境地区的地区主义投票行为,尽管在广域一级的行政区域不同。更具体地说,本研究旨在实证验证岭南-湖南边境地区的地区主义投票放松现象,该地区通过日常生活分享和各种友好交流可以实现情感交流。为此,对2000年以来举行的总统选举和议会选举各选区的计票数据进行了综合分析,并分析了各选区的地区优势政党的选民支持情况。对集体资料进行分析的结果显示:首先,以岭南和湖南交界地区的9个州和郡为对象,在26个州和郡中,有15个州出现了退出地区执政党的地区主义松懈现象。由此证实了“湖南在岭南,岭南在湖南”的真实存在。但是,有分析认为,这种地区主义的投票放松现象并没有影响相邻的eup和myeon之间的投票。其次,确认了各种友好事务和地理或地形影响可能会影响地区主义投票行为。相邻的南北韩之间进行姐妹关系和友好活动等交流,或在没有山川等地形障碍的地区进行交流,放松现象的强度很大。
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引用次数: 0
President Reagan’s Situational Leadership: Focusing on the strategy of the collapse of the Soviet Union 里根总统的情境领导:聚焦于苏联解体的战略
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.1.175
H. Lee, Hyun-Chool Lee
This paper analyzes the leadership of President Reagan, who is credited with winning the Cold War and restoring American pride, by focusing on his strategy for the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reagan pursued ‘peace through strength’ and implemented strategies to fulfill this vision, arguing that the existing policies of containment and détente were ineffective and deceptive. First, he cut off the flow of funds to the Soviet Union by blocking the flow of technology to the Soviet Union, sabotage operations through the supply of fake technology, and a strategy to depress international oil prices. Second, the Soviet-Afghan war and the development of the SDI were used as a “poison pill” to make the Soviets pour money into the country like water. Third, he supported democratization in Poland and Eastern Europe, and used human rights as a weapon in the public opinion war to pressure the Soviet Union into regime change. Finally, his leadership was marked by his ability to persuade the public as a great communicator. To be effective, a political leader must have a guiding ideology that is responsive to the times and historical calling. He was a leader who was able to adapt his approach to the changing political environment and demonstrated situational leadership, using both transactional and transformational leadership to achieve his goals. In other words, he had a sense of the times and was able to articulate a vision to the people. In this respect, President Reagan is a prime example of the importance of situational leadership.
本文以里根总统的苏联解体战略为中心,分析了里根总统的领导能力。里根总统赢得了冷战,恢复了美国人的自豪感。里根追求“通过实力实现和平”,并实施了实现这一愿景的战略,他认为现有的遏制和打击政策是无效和具有欺骗性的。首先,他通过阻断技术流向苏联,切断了向苏联的资金流动,通过提供虚假技术来破坏行动,并采取了压低国际油价的战略。其次,苏阿战争和SDI的发展被用作“毒丸”,迫使苏联向阿富汗如水般投入资金。第三,他支持波兰和东欧的民主化,把人权作为舆论战的武器,迫使苏联政权更迭。最后,他作为一个伟大的沟通者说服公众的能力标志着他的领导能力。政治领袖要有实效性,就必须有适应时代和历史要求的指导思想。他是一位能够适应不断变化的政治环境的领导者,并展示了情境领导力,使用交易型和变革型领导力来实现他的目标。换句话说,他有时代感,能够向人民表达一个愿景。在这方面,里根总统是情景领导重要性的一个典型例子。
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of European Public Opinion on the Russo-Ukrainian War and its Determinants 欧洲舆论对俄乌战争及其决定因素的分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.29274/ews.2023.35.1.117
This study examines public opinion in European countries on the Russo-Ukrainian war and the EU’s sanctions against Russia. In particular, it investigates the different perceptions of issues related to the war in Ukraine in terms of security and economic implications and seeks to explain the differences in public opinions among European countries. Leading public opinions in Europe strongly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and agree to impose strong sanctions. However, there are different attitudes in public opinion depending on the expected economic damage and energy mix. Countries concerned about significant economic damage due to rising energy prices tend to prefer measures that take the economic impact into account rather than value-oriented hard-line responses. Additionally, countries with a high proportion of fossil fuel use also show the same tendency. On the other hand, countries that can endure economic damage and better respond to energy crises with a high share of renewable energy prefer a hard-line response. Countries with a favorable image of Russia have a relatively solid public opinion insisting on considering the economic situation, while countries with a pro-American tendency demand a hard-line response based on values. In terms of diplomacy and security, it was found that the more countries feel the security threat from the war, the more public opinion supports a value-centered policy stance and insists on military aid to Ukraine. In particular, the three Nordic countries, which have a long tradition of neutrality, judge Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a threat to fundamental European values and are more in favor of military aid to Ukraine than other countries. This study provides significant implications for forecasting the EU’s response to Russia. For the EU to maintain a strong stance against Russia, it is essential to secure solidarity among the members. The EU will need to coordinate the different economic burdens of its Member States and fully reflect the varying security awareness of European countries on its common security and defense policy. These efforts are necessary to maintain a solid and coherent policy stance on the war in Ukraine.
本研究考察了欧洲国家对俄乌战争和欧盟对俄制裁的民意。特别是,它调查了在安全和经济影响方面对乌克兰战争相关问题的不同看法,并试图解释欧洲国家之间公众意见的差异。欧洲主要舆论强烈谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,并同意实施严厉制裁。然而,根据预期的经济损失和能源结构,公众舆论的态度有所不同。担心能源价格上涨会造成重大经济损失的国家倾向于采取考虑经济影响的措施,而不是以价值为导向的强硬措施。此外,化石燃料使用比例高的国家也显示出同样的趋势。另一方面,那些能够承受经济损失并能以高可再生能源比例更好地应对能源危机的国家更倾向于采取强硬的应对措施。对俄罗斯有好感的国家的舆论相对稳固,要求考虑经济状况,而亲美倾向的国家则要求以价值观为基础的强硬应对。在外交和安全方面,研究发现,越是感受到战争带来的安全威胁的国家,越倾向于支持价值中心的政策立场,坚持对乌克兰的军事援助。特别是具有长期中立传统的北欧三国,认为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是对欧洲基本价值观的威胁,比其他国家更支持对乌克兰的军事援助。本研究为预测欧盟对俄罗斯的反应提供了重要的启示。欧盟要对俄罗斯保持强硬立场,就必须确保成员国之间的团结。欧盟需要协调成员国不同的经济负担,充分反映欧洲各国对欧盟共同安全和防务政策的不同安全意识。这些努力对于在乌克兰战争问题上保持坚定和一致的政策立场是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of East and West studies
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