A Statistical Estimation of Solar Power for Energy Mix in Bangladesh

Abstract

solar radiation (SR) is a significant parameter for producing solar power for the electric energy mix. Sun radiation data is hard to be accumulated at particular geographical location of a country due to measurement instruments is limited especially in developing country like Bangladesh. Hence, estimation of SR for a meteorological location is an important research to learn solar energy potentiality. In this regards, this paper presents a statistical inference model for the estimation of bright sunshine hour which is important metric for solar irradiance. Normal distribution model is inferred from the historical data of some important locations of Bangladesh. Mean and standard deviation are the parameters at 95% confidence interval which control the behavior of such distribution. In this statistical model, bright sunshine hour is estimated that expedite to find the potential of solar energy at particular location. The estimation model can be used as a decision making support to design photovoltaic power system for deployment of energy mix policy.