Delay Risk Mitigation of Generation Expansion Planning Implementation in the Deregulated Market based on Game Theory Approach

Abstract

Delay on power plant constructions is a big problem in Ambon power system. Independent power producer (IPP) is an alternative solution to mitigate the risk of delays. The using of IPP makes the electricity market in Ambon power system becomes a deregulated market. So, before determining the IPP as the expansion power plants in Ambon power system, it is necessary to analyze the interest of investors to invest in the deregulated market (Ambon power system). The research’s purpose is to mitigate the delay risk of GEP implementation by IPP. This research carried out an investor interest analysis so it can be determined which power plants can be built by IPP and which ones must be handled by PLN. This research used modification of game theory method to analyze the investor interest in Ambon system. The research result showed that IPP solution is impossible because they are not interested. All power plants will be built by PLN. The alternative solutions to minimize the delay risk are utilizing capital market, increasing the ability of PLN to generate internal funds, and developed a project finance model where EPC contractors also give a portion on project funding.