Least cost analysis of renewable energy projects

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology for evaluating dispersed and centralized rural energy options on a least cost basis. In defining the load to be served, each supply alternative must provide equivalent levels of service. The village to be served is defined by the number of loads, load density, distance from the nearest power distribution line, and load growth. Appropriate rural energy alternatives are identified and sized to satisfy the defined load. Lastly, a net present value analysis (including capital, installation, O&M, fuel, and replacement costs, etc.) is performed to identify the least cost option. A spreadsheet-based analytical tool developed by the World Bank's Asia Alternative Energy Unit (ASTAE) incorporates this approach and has been applied to compare photovoltaic solar home systems with other rural energy supply options in Indonesia. Load size and load density are found to be the critical factors in choosing between a grid and off-grid solution.