决策风险和个人发展账户:另一种观点

Edmund Khashadourian
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文分析了在个人发展账户(IDA)项目背景下风险对贫困人口决策的影响。IDA是一项配套储蓄计划,旨在帮助低收入家庭投资于增值资产。对这些家庭来说,参加国际开发协会所涉及的风险与他们为能够储蓄而减少当前消费(有时是大幅度减少)所作出的牺牲有关。该计划本身并不提供储蓄匹配;相反,只有当储蓄投资于特定资产时,它才提供匹配。由于不能保证国际开发协会的储蓄在登记时就能转化为符合国际开发协会匹配条件的资产,因此参与该计划本质上是一个有风险的决定,它受到一系列不同行为因素的制约,包括低收入家庭的冒险偏好。对风险的考虑为与项目占用、不活动和损失率相关的问题提供了另一种解释。它还提供了如何提高结果的新的和简单的想法。在解决这些问题时,本文建议使用包含灵活匹配组件的IDA模型,以确保避免未匹配节省的风险,并补充现有的IDA匹配结构。对当前政策的简单修改将使国际开发协会匹配的总成本保持在现有水平。引入灵活匹配可以减轻最脆弱的参与者群体决定参加国际开发的风险。它还可以潜在地减少不活跃账户的百分比,同时提高该计划的整体保留率。此外,建议的变更不会改变IDA计划的性质,因为灵活匹配只占总资产投资匹配的一小部分。
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Decision Risks and Individual Development Accounts: An Alternative View
This article analyzes the impact of risk on decisions made by the poor within the context of the Individual Development Account (IDA) program. IDA is a matched savings program designed to help low-income households invest in appreciating assets. For these households, the risk involved with participation in IDA relates to the sacrifice they make by reducing current consumption - sometimes in a significant way - in order to be able to save. The program does not offer a match on savings per se; rather, it offers the match only when savings are invested in certain assets. Since there is no guarantee that IDA savings will be converted into assets qualified for the IDA match at the time of enrollment, participation in the program is characterized as an inherently risky decision, which is governed by different sets of behavioral factors, including the risk-taking preferences of low-income households. Consideration of risk provides an alternative explanation for issues related to program take-up, inactivity, and attrition rates. It also offers new and simple ideas on how to improve results. In addressing these problems, the article recommends using an IDA model that includes a flexible match component, to insure against the risk of unmatched savings and complement the existing IDA match structure. Simple modifications to current policy will maintain the total cost of IDA match at the existing levels. Introduction of a flexible match may mitigate the risk of decision to participate in IDA for the most vulnerable group of participants. It can also potentially reduce the percentage of inactive accounts while improving the overall retention rates in the program. Moreover, the recommended changes would not alter the nature of the IDA program, as the flexible match would only amount to a fraction of the total asset investment match.
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