应计项目质量和预计未来业绩

Muljanto Siladjaja
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摘要

以往的实证研究表明,应计利润的使用对投资者的感知有负向的贡献,而本研究表明,可自由支配的应计利润质量对投资者的感知有正向的贡献,这为投资者通过关注股息现象的影响来预测未来业绩铺平了道路。通过发展未来前景的度量,本研究将未来市场价值作为一个新的指标,其中会计信息对投资决策具有显著的影响。这种适度的多元回归使用了股息政策,其中在信号沟通中发挥了关键作用,因此,因果研究的样本,在2015年至2017年期间,工业制造部门的154家上市公司。结果表明,应计收益质量为投资者准确估计未来收益提供了实用的指导。这种股息政策最大限度地减少了在业绩报告中提供误导性偏见的机会主义行为模式,而股息对未来市场价值有积极的影响,增强了可自由支配的应计项目质量。通过建立映射与决策模型,结合贝叶斯定理,对实证研究进行了简要说明,指出高财务报表质量隐含着博弈论。本研究建议将股利政策作为一项强制性义务,监管机构必须发布公共政策,为管理层实施高会计信息质量提供推动。
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THE ACCRUALS QUALITY AND THE ESTIMATED FUTURE PERFORMANCE
This previous empirical research has shown out, that the usage of accruals had the contribution negatively on investor’s perception, this current research has shown that the discretionary accruals quality had a positive contribution, which paves the way for investors to predict the future performance by concerning on the effect of dividend’s phenomenon. By developing out the measurement of the future prospect, this research has used the future market value as a new indicator, where the accounting information has a significant effect on an investment decision. This moderated multiple regression has used the dividend policy, where played a critical role in signaling communication, Thus, The causal research has the samples, that amounted 154 of the listed companies in the industrial manufacturing sector for the period 2015 until 2017. The result indicated that the discretionary accruals quality had given a practical guideline for the investor to estimate the future return with high accuracy. This dividend policy has minimized the pattern of opportunistic behavior in providing a misleading bias in the performance reporting when the dividend has strengthened the discretionary accruals quality positively on the future market value. By developing a mapping with the decision model, combined with Bayes Theorema, empirical research provides a brief illustration, pointed out the high financial statements quality implies the game theory. This research recommended that this dividend policy can be used as a mandatory obligation, and the regulators must issue public policies, which provide a push to management in implementing  high accounting information quality.
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