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引用次数: 2

摘要

. 疾病传播的传染模型在社会网络中得到了广泛的研究,该模型可以预测流行病随时间的增长。离散时间仿真方法蒙特卡罗仿真,将时间离散为均匀步长,用过渡概率代替状态间的过渡率,在模型仿真中被广泛应用。在本文中,我们提出了一种连续时间方法,即Gillespie算法,它可以用于快速模拟随机过程,它是事件驱动的,而不是使用等间隔时间步长。我们展示了该方法如何适用于流行病模型,主要是易感-感染模型和易感-感染-易感模型,并通过数值模拟证实了该方法的准确性。基于该方法的准确性,我们对流行病模型进行了一些修改,使模型更适用。
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The Application of Gillespie Algorithm in Spreading
. The contagion models of disease-spread which predict the epidemics grow with time goes by have been widely researched in social networks. The discrete-time simulation method, Monte Carlo Simulation where time is discretized into uniform steps and transition rates between states are replaced by transition probabilities, are mostly applied when simulating the models. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time approach, the Gillespie algorithm, which can be used for fast simulation of stochastic processes, is event-driven rather than using equally-spaced time steps. We show how the method can be adapted to the epidemic models, mainly in the susceptible-infected model and susceptible-infected-susceptible model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. Based on the accuracy of the method, we make some changes in epidemic models to make the models more applicable.
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