油气管道社会风险可接受水平研究

Liang Kaiwu, Chen Xingyu, Wang Maolin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

管道运输作为中国常用的油气运输方式,在产生经济效益和社会效益的同时,也存在着巨大的潜在风险。为确保油气管道社会风险的可接受水平,制定合理可行的可接受风险标准是十分必要的。本文在ALARP (as-low as- reasonable - viable)原则的基础上,提出了“累积死亡频率(F)”与“死亡人数(N)”的关系图——改进的F-N曲线,并与风险图相结合。在绘制曲线时,利用风险图中的四个变量对风险等级进行分级,并考虑油气管道相关法规。研究表明,改进后的F-N曲线绘制过程更加客观合理,社会风险可接受程度也更加准确。具有较强的通用性,可以适用于不同的地区和行业。
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Research on Acceptable Level of Social Risks in Oil and Gas Pipeline
Pipeline transportation, as a common method of oil and gas transportation in China, is generating economic and social benefits, while inhabiting huge potential risks at the same time. In order to make sure the acceptable level of social risks in oil and gas pipeline, it is extremely necessary to formulate a reasonable and feasible standard for acceptable risks. This essay, on the basis of as-low-as-reasonably-practicable (ALARP) principle, proposes a relation chart between “cumulative death frequency (F)” and “the number of death (N)” - improved F-N curve, which is combined with the risk chart. While drawing the curve, four variables in the risk chart are used to grade the risk level, the oil and gas pipeline related regulations are also considered. The research indicates that, improved F-N curve has a more objective and reasonable drawing process as well as a more accurate acceptable level of social risks. With stronger universality, it is able to be applied to different regions and industries.
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