Prediction Model of Expressway Natural Risk Loss

Abstract. Natural risks of expressway remain an important part of its operation risks. However, due to the variety, universality, locality and suddenness of natural risks, the prediction of expressway natural risks is difficult to forecast and control. In this paper, the expressway natural risk loss prediction model is established by the combining method of Chaos theory and Neural network according to the accident percentage data of rainy weather in recent 20 years in Shandong province. The use of this combining method can solve the problem of uncertain risk factors in expressway operation risks and can provide for decision-making reference and data support for expressway management and operation departments.