信任博弈中信念依赖偏好的披露

G. Attanasi, Pierpaolo Battigalli, R. Nagel
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引用次数: 44

摘要

在信任博弈实验中,我们采用心理游戏的视角来分析行为和信念。受试者被随机分配为“受托人”(A玩家)和“受托人”(B玩家)。假设B被试可能受到内疚厌恶和互惠的影响,我们试图通过一系列假设问题引出他们的信念依赖动机。我们设计实验,使实验对象没有操纵的动机,我们检查答案是可靠的。我们有两种主要的治疗方法。在无传递(控制)处理中,B的(依赖于信念的)偏好不可能是常识,因此博弈具有不完全信息。在传递处理中,B对假设问题的答案在两个匹配的被试之间传递并成为常识。就这些答案揭示了B的“心理类型”而言,这种处理方法近似于具有完整信息的心理游戏。在这种情况下,假设参与者在有效均衡上协调他们的期望,当揭示类型的B是内疚厌恶(或互惠)时,我们应该观察到信任/合作,当他是自私的时候,我们应该观察到不信任/背叛。我们也提供了定性预测不完全信息的情况下,基于简化贝叶斯心理博弈。主要的观点是,平均行为是中间的。我们用网格估计算法分析了每个B科目的答案集。大多数B类实验对象并不自私,我们观察到他们的内疚厌恶情绪高于互惠情绪。与我们的理论见解一致,我们的实验结果表明,在传递处理中,诱导(近似)完全信息行为的心理博弈更为极端:在匹配对的亚群体中,B高度厌恶罪恶感,比相应的不完全信息设置中有更多的信任和合作;而在配对配对的亚群体中,当B的罪恶感厌恶程度较低时,他们的信任和合作程度就会低于相应的不完全信息环境。在两种信息设置下,我们发现B被试的合作率与内疚厌恶正相关。
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Disclosure of belief-dependent preferences in the trust game
We adopt a psychological games perspective to analyze behavior and beliefs in a Trust Game experiment. Subjects are randomly assigned to the role of "truster", A player, and "trustee", B player. Assuming that B subjects may be affected by guilt aversion and reciprocity, we try to elicit their belief dependent motivations with a set of hypothetical questions. We design the experiment so that subjects have no incentives to manipulate and we check that answers are reliable. We have two main treatments. In the No-Transmission (control) treatment, B's (belief dependent) preferences cannot be common knowledge, hence the game has incomplete information. In the Transmission treatment, B's answers to the hypothetical questions are transmitted and made common knowledge between the two matched subjects. In so far as such answers reveal the "psychological type" of B, this treatment approximates a psychological game with complete information. In this case, assuming that players coordinate their expectations on the efficient equilibrium, we should observe trust/cooperation when the revealed type of B is guilt averse (or reciprocal) and no-trust/defection when he is selfish. We also provide qualitative predictions for the incomplete information case, based on a simplified Bayesian psychological game. The main insight is that average behavior is intermediate. We analyze the set of answers of each B subject with a grid estimation algorithm. Most B subjects are not selfish and we observe a dominance of guilt aversion over reciprocity. Coherently with our theoretical insights, our experimental results show that in the Transmission treatment inducing a psychological game with (approximately) complete information behavior is more extreme: in the subpopulation of matched pairs where B is highly guilt averse there is more trust and cooperation than in the corresponding incomplete information setting without transmission; whereas in the subpopulation of matched pairs where B has low guilt aversion there is less trust and cooperation than in the corresponding incomplete information setting. In both information settings, we find that the B subjects' cooperation rate is positively related to guilt aversion.
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