实际盈余质量对未来市场价值的影响被股利政策所缓和

Markonah Markonah, Muljanto Siladjaja, Nicodemus Simu
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摘要

以往的研究表明,投资者必须对管理层施加压力以提高盈余质量,因为它关系到对未来前景的准确预测。本文通过对真实盈余质量的实证检验,提出了财务报告质量的新指标。股利政策具有降低资金成本的优势,可以作为调节变量。本研究对2015-2017年工业制造业上市公司的所有数据进行了有调节多元回归分析。在计算未来市场价值时,本研究使用模型H(两阶段增长模型)来预测估计价格,该模型满足了最小跟踪信号标准。统计检验表明,真实盈余质量对未来市场价值具有正向影响,较高的盈余质量使得投资者对未来前景的判断更加准确。当管理层倾向于提高盈利质量时,股息政策在减少机会主义行为模式方面发挥了关键作用。这一实证检验指出,出版财务收益一直是博弈论的隐含。为了支持博弈论在出版公司财务绩效中的应用,本研究通过提供投资者感知和会计信息的图式,在评估投资者行为方面提供了一种新颖的方法。股利政策有推动管理层实施盈余管理的倾向,因为管理层努力传播积极的信号。
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THE IMPACT OF REAL EARNINGS QUALITY ON THE FUTURE MARKET VALUE BY MODERATED BY THE DIVIDEND POLICY
The previous researches concluded that, the investor had to pressure on management for improving the earning quality, because it related with predicting the future prospect with high accuracy. Developing out the new proxy for financial reporting quality, this empirical testing modified the real earnings quality. The dividend policy has advantages in reducing out the cost of capital, so that this policy could be used as a moderated variables. This research used the moderated multiple regression by collecting all data on the listed company in industry manufacturing from 2015-2017. In calculating the future market value, this research used the Model H (Two Stages Model of Growth) in predicting the estimated price, which had fullfilled the minimum tracking signals criteria. The statistical testing shown out the real earnings quality have the positive impact on future market value, where the higher earnings quality have made  the investors  decision in estimating the future prospect precisely. The dividend policy played a critical role  in reducing out the pattern of opportunistics behaviour, when is a pressure on management in having proclivity to improve the earnings quality. This empirical testing had pointed out that publication financial earnings had been implication of game theory. To support the game theory in publication financial performance, this research had provided  a novelty in estimating investor s action  by providing out the schema of investors perception and accounting information. The dividend policy had proclivity to give a push on management in implementing earning management, because managements effort in dissemating the positive signal.
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