An Analysis of the Effect of Excellent Logistics Company Certification System and External Environmental Factors on Quantitative Growth of the Logistics Industry

물류산업은 국가 산업 경쟁력의 핵심 요소로 정부는 국가 물류산업 경쟁력확보를 위해 다양한 정책적 노력을 기울이고 있다. 본 연구는 정부의 물류기업 육성 정책인 우수물류기업인증제도의 정책효과와 금융위기, 코로나19 등 외부 충격이 물류산업의 성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 물류산업 발전을 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 1999년부터 2021년까지의 시계열 데이터를 활용하여 종속변수에는 양적성장을 나타낼 수 있는 매출액을 활용하였으며 선행연구를 통해 GDP, 수출입액, 물류성과지표(LPI)를 독립변수로 설정하여 분석을 실시하였다. 또한, 우수물류기업인증제도를 정책요인으로 설정하였고, 2008년 발생한 금융위기와 2020년 발생한 코로나19를 외부환경요인으로 설정하였다. 분석 결과 GDP, 수출입액, 우수물류기업인증제도, 코로나19는 물류산업 성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 금융위기는 물류산업 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 물류 기업의 양적성장에 한정하여 이루어졌다는 한계점이 있으며 향후 연구 범위를 확장하여 질적 성장을 동시에 고려하는 연구가 필요하다. 또한 인증 등급별 차이를 고려한 연구가 이루어질 필요가 있다고 판단된다.The logistics industry is a key element of national industrial competitiveness and the government has been making various policy efforts to secure the competitiveness of the national logistics industry. In this study, the effect of the excellent logistics company certification system and external shocks such as the financial crisis and COVID-19 on the growth of the logistics industry are examined and some policy implications are suggested. And multiple regression was conducted to identify various variables that impact on quantitative growth of logistics industry using time series data form 1999 to 2021. This study used sales as the dependent variables to represent quantitative growth and the following variables was selected as independent variables through previous studies: GDP, the amount of imports and exports, Logistics Pergormance Index(LPI). And excellent logistics company certification system was used as policy factors, and the financial crisis and COVID-19 was used as external environmental factors. The result show that GDP, the amount of imports and exports, excellent logistics company certification system, COVID-19 have a positive impact on the growth of the logistics industry. On the other hand, we found that the financial crisis have negative effects on the growth of the logistics industry. A limitation of this study is that the analysis was conducted only considering quantitative growth. It is necessary to expand the scope of research to consider both qualitative and quantitative growth and to consider the relationship between different certification levels in the future.