Dynamic Mode Decomposition for data-driven analysis and reduced-order modelling of E×B plasmas: II. dynamics forecasting

Abstract In part I of the article, we demonstrated that a variant of the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) algorithm based on variable projection optimization, called optimized DMD (OPT-DMD), enables a robust identification of the dominant spatiotemporally coherent modes underlying the data across various test cases representing different physical parameters in an E × B simulation configuration. We emphasized that the OPT-DMD significantly improves the analysis of complex plasma processes, revealing information that cannot be derived using conventionally employed analyses such as the fast Fourier transform. As the OPT-DMD can be constrained to produce stable reduced-order models (ROMs) by construction, in this paper, we extend the application of the OPT-DMD and investigate the capabilities of the linear ROM from this algorithm toward forecasting in time of the plasma dynamics in configurations representative of the radial-azimuthal and axial-azimuthal cross-sections of a Hall thruster and over a range of simulation parameters in each test case. The predictive capacity of the OPT-DMD ROM is assessed primarily in terms of short-term dynamics forecast or, in other words, for large ratios of training-to-test data. However, the utility of the ROM for long-term dynamics forecasting is also presented for an example case in the radial-azimuthal configuration. The model’s predictive performance is heterogeneous across various test cases. Nonetheless, a remarkable predictiveness is observed in the test cases that do not exhibit highly transient behaviors. Moreover, in all investigated cases, the error between the ground-truth and the reconstructed data from the OPT-DMD ROM remains bounded over time within both the training and the test window. As a result, despite its limitation in terms of generalized applicability to all plasma conditions, the OPT-DMD is proven as a reliable method to develop low computational cost and highly predictive data-driven ROMs in systems with a quasi-periodic global evolution of the plasma state.