How Protected Areas Are Transforming Within Megapolis: An Advanced Spatiotemporal Legislative Model

Compared to pristine ecosystems, urban protected areas (PAs) are exposed to intensified pressure and deterioration due to rapid population growth and entangled stakeholders’ interests. At the same time, these valuable ecosystems provide cities with ecosystem services, including cultural ones, and enhance the quality of life. Spatial analysis of PAs’ transformations in the context of the multidisciplinary approach contributes to the detection and safeguarding of vulnerable ecosystems. The study object is the protected areas of Moscow megapolis (within boundaries until 2012), whereas the study subject is the spatial and temporal PA’s transformations established by legislative acts. The research question is to devise a model of transformations designated by law within urban PAs and affecting their borders, land use, and rate of ecosystem deterioration. To achieve the research question, three goals were set: to gather spatial data on PAs’ transformations within Moscow designated by legislative acts; to design a comprehensive and exhaustive classification of PAs’ transformations established by legislative acts; to model spatial and temporal trends in transformations of Moscow PAs (1985-2022), according to the classification devised. The 3-compound framework for the analysis of legislative transformations (downgrading, downsizing, degazettment of protected areas) was coupled by content analysis of transformation events, GIS mapping, and spatial analysis of urban vegetation through NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) estimations and raster computations in QGIS and GDAL software. The originality of our study derives from: the analysis of the 4th transformations’ compound (design failures of new PAs); spatial comparison with positive transformations, strengthening nature conservation; uncovering detailed subtypes and levels of transformations; applying this approach to the local scale of megapolis. Our study is based on: 1985-2022 legislative acts with text and map representations of PAs’ borders, zones and land-use designated by regional government and national ministries; national and Moscow open-access spatial data hubs; Moscow online news; 2001-2021 Landsat imageries and Global Forest Change data on Moscow region. Adverse transformations affected a larger area than positive ones (53.8% of a total PA area compared to 22.6%). Positive transformations contributed by PAs’ design (49.5%) mostly, while adverse ones – by easing of restrictions on land use (60.3%) and failures in the design of new PAs (22.8%). Adverse transformations are mainly reflected in the downsizing of zones with the strictest prohibitions on land use (-68% on average) and a low share of designed PAs (54%) through the period 1985-2022. Woodland plantations dramatically expanded (+86.5%), replacing seminatural urban forests (2005-2021). Hence, PA’s ability to supply ecosystem services has been considerably diminished. In regard to Moscow, considerable adverse trends in nature protection were revealed, generally hidden from the public. The analyzed typology of Moscow PAs’ transformations is quite conventional and may be improved through comparisons with other megapolises abundant in natural heritage to advance the model devised and elicit threats to nature conservation.