Quantifying uncertainties in greenhouse gas savings and abatement costs with cellulosic biofuels

Abstract Cellulosic biofuels from non-food feedstocks, while appealing, continue to encounter uncertainty about their induced land use change (ILUC) effects, net greenhouse gas (GHG) saving potential and their economic costs. We analyse the implications of multiple uncertainties along the biofuel supply chain from feedstock yields, land availability for production to conversion to fuel in the refinery on these outcomes. We find that compared to corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels have a substantially smaller and less uncertain ILUC-related GHG intensity and lead to larger GHG savings at lower welfare costs of abatement, indicating the potential to make robust and substantial contributions to cost-effective climate change mitigation.