Recall biases in retrospective self-reported survey data have important implications for empirical research. We leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question ordering, retrieval cues and aggregate (community) anchoring. We focus on maize production and happiness reports among smallholder farmers in Malawi. Asking for retrospective before concurrent data on average reduces recall bias (i.e. the deviation of the recalled versus the concurrent outcome reported in the previous period) by 34 per cent for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful and community anchors can exacerbate the bias. None of the strategies help to ease the recall bias for happiness reports.
{"title":"Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from smallholder farmers in Malawi","authors":"Susan Godlonton, Manuel A Hernandez, Cynthia Paz","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae026","url":null,"abstract":"Recall biases in retrospective self-reported survey data have important implications for empirical research. We leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question ordering, retrieval cues and aggregate (community) anchoring. We focus on maize production and happiness reports among smallholder farmers in Malawi. Asking for retrospective before concurrent data on average reduces recall bias (i.e. the deviation of the recalled versus the concurrent outcome reported in the previous period) by 34 per cent for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful and community anchors can exacerbate the bias. None of the strategies help to ease the recall bias for happiness reports.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increase in farmland prices in many parts of the world over the past decade has sparked discussions about whether non-farmers pay higher prices for farmland. This study uses a causal machine learning approach with a rich data set of land transactions in Germany to quantify the potential price premium paid by non-farmers. By applying the causal forest method, we uncover the heterogeneity of price premiums and reveal moderating effects of covariates. We find that the average positive price premium by non-farmers decreases with parcel size and distance to a highway exit.
{"title":"Do non-farmers pay more for land than farmers?","authors":"Lorenz Schmidt, Martin Odening, Matthias Ritter","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae023","url":null,"abstract":"The increase in farmland prices in many parts of the world over the past decade has sparked discussions about whether non-farmers pay higher prices for farmland. This study uses a causal machine learning approach with a rich data set of land transactions in Germany to quantify the potential price premium paid by non-farmers. By applying the causal forest method, we uncover the heterogeneity of price premiums and reveal moderating effects of covariates. We find that the average positive price premium by non-farmers decreases with parcel size and distance to a highway exit.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142440238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study how rural households in Ethiopia adapt to droughts through labour reallocation. Using three waves of panel data and exploiting spatio-temporal variations in drought exposure, we find that households reduce on-farm work and increase off-farm self-employment in response to both short-term and persistent droughts, without abandoning family farming. Diversification into off-farm activities is driven by drought-related productivity declines in agriculture and contributes to consumption smoothing and food security. Households with better access to financial services are more likely to reallocate labour off-farm. Our results highlight the importance of strengthening the rural non-farm economy to enhance rural households’ climate resilience.
{"title":"Drought shocks and labour reallocation in rural Africa: evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Arnold L Musungu, Zaneta Kubik, Matin Qaim","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae020","url":null,"abstract":"We study how rural households in Ethiopia adapt to droughts through labour reallocation. Using three waves of panel data and exploiting spatio-temporal variations in drought exposure, we find that households reduce on-farm work and increase off-farm self-employment in response to both short-term and persistent droughts, without abandoning family farming. Diversification into off-farm activities is driven by drought-related productivity declines in agriculture and contributes to consumption smoothing and food security. Households with better access to financial services are more likely to reallocate labour off-farm. Our results highlight the importance of strengthening the rural non-farm economy to enhance rural households’ climate resilience.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141908965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The replication crisis in empirical research calls for a more mindful approach to how we apply and report statistical models. For empirical research to have a lasting (policy) impact, these concerns are crucial. In this paper, we present Probabilistic Programming (PP) as a way forward. The PP workflow with an explicit data-generating process enhances the communication of model assumptions, code testing and consistency between theory and estimation. By simplifying Bayesian analysis, it also offers advantages for the interpretation, communication and modelling of uncertainty. We outline the advantages of PP to encourage its adoption in our community.
{"title":"Probabilistic programming for embedding theory and quantifying uncertainty in econometric analysis","authors":"Hugo Storm, Thomas Heckelei, Kathy Baylis","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae016","url":null,"abstract":"The replication crisis in empirical research calls for a more mindful approach to how we apply and report statistical models. For empirical research to have a lasting (policy) impact, these concerns are crucial. In this paper, we present Probabilistic Programming (PP) as a way forward. The PP workflow with an explicit data-generating process enhances the communication of model assumptions, code testing and consistency between theory and estimation. By simplifying Bayesian analysis, it also offers advantages for the interpretation, communication and modelling of uncertainty. We outline the advantages of PP to encourage its adoption in our community.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141521615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper employs the recently proposed climate penalty model to estimate season-specific climate change impacts on Chinese winter wheat yields and also reveals the effects of long-run adaptions by comparing the short-run and long-run estimates identified from the model. We find that Spring freezing days are critical as we estimate small yield gains when considering a reduction in the number of freezing days (induced by global warming), as opposed to large yield losses when such effects are omitted. We also find substantial influences of adaptation effects that could reverse the sign of climate change impacts.
{"title":"Climate change and winter wheat yields: the roles of freezing days and long-run adaptations","authors":"Yabin Da, Yangyang Xu, Fujin Yi, Bruce McCarl","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae015","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs the recently proposed climate penalty model to estimate season-specific climate change impacts on Chinese winter wheat yields and also reveals the effects of long-run adaptions by comparing the short-run and long-run estimates identified from the model. We find that Spring freezing days are critical as we estimate small yield gains when considering a reduction in the number of freezing days (induced by global warming), as opposed to large yield losses when such effects are omitted. We also find substantial influences of adaptation effects that could reverse the sign of climate change impacts.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141185136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Beef production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We conducted a choice experiment to analyse consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for beef characterised as carbon-friendly. We included a treatment where respondents were informed about carbon-friendly production and surveyed beliefs regarding beef production’s contribution to GHG emissions. The results show that consumers have a positive WTP for carbon-friendly beef and providing information increases the premium that they are willing to pay for it. The findings also suggest that consumers who believe that beef production contributes to GHG emissions are willing to pay more for beef carrying a carbon-friendly label.
{"title":"The effect of information and beliefs on preferences for sustainably produced beef","authors":"Mariam Ishaq, Deepthi Kolady, Carola Grebitus","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae014","url":null,"abstract":"Beef production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We conducted a choice experiment to analyse consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for beef characterised as carbon-friendly. We included a treatment where respondents were informed about carbon-friendly production and surveyed beliefs regarding beef production’s contribution to GHG emissions. The results show that consumers have a positive WTP for carbon-friendly beef and providing information increases the premium that they are willing to pay for it. The findings also suggest that consumers who believe that beef production contributes to GHG emissions are willing to pay more for beef carrying a carbon-friendly label.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141177388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present a new approach to establish an empirical overview of farmers’ risk preferences and the characteristics associated with these preferences. We rely on an Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis whereby we identify studies eliciting risk preferences through self-assessments and Holt and Laury lotteries, and construct and analyse a unique dataset of 5,157 farmers from 19 studies in 13 European countries. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in risk preferences across elicitation methods, within and across studies, risk domains and farm and farmer characteristics. European farmers are on average risk-averse when risk preferences are elicited by lotteries, and on average risk-neutral when elicited by self-assessments. Beyond differences in the average risk aversion, there are distributional differences pointing to a limited convergence between elicitation methods and a larger explanatory power of farm and farmer characteristics to determine risk preferences elicited with self-assessments compared to lotteries.
{"title":"Heterogeneity of European farmers’ risk preferences: an individual participant data meta-analysis","authors":"Viviana Garcia, Chloe McCallum, Robert Finger","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae012","url":null,"abstract":"We present a new approach to establish an empirical overview of farmers’ risk preferences and the characteristics associated with these preferences. We rely on an Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis whereby we identify studies eliciting risk preferences through self-assessments and Holt and Laury lotteries, and construct and analyse a unique dataset of 5,157 farmers from 19 studies in 13 European countries. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in risk preferences across elicitation methods, within and across studies, risk domains and farm and farmer characteristics. European farmers are on average risk-averse when risk preferences are elicited by lotteries, and on average risk-neutral when elicited by self-assessments. Beyond differences in the average risk aversion, there are distributional differences pointing to a limited convergence between elicitation methods and a larger explanatory power of farm and farmer characteristics to determine risk preferences elicited with self-assessments compared to lotteries.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141165244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This introduction presents five articles of the virtual issue on bioeconomy innovation pipelines and supply chain shocks. The presented cases use alternative methodological approaches with their own advantages and disadvantages. The conclusion we can draw is that the specificities of individual case studies make it difficult to generalise and many more cases would be needed to perform a meta-analysis. We encourage agricultural economists to provide further research on detailed cases, which will be particularly important for gaining a better understanding of the potential effects of the EU Green Deal.
{"title":"Introduction to the virtual issue on bioeconomy innovation pipelines and supply chain shocks","authors":"Dušan Drabik, Justus Wesseler","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae010","url":null,"abstract":"This introduction presents five articles of the virtual issue on bioeconomy innovation pipelines and supply chain shocks. The presented cases use alternative methodological approaches with their own advantages and disadvantages. The conclusion we can draw is that the specificities of individual case studies make it difficult to generalise and many more cases would be needed to perform a meta-analysis. We encourage agricultural economists to provide further research on detailed cases, which will be particularly important for gaining a better understanding of the potential effects of the EU Green Deal.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140547560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using Rwandan Integrated Household Living Conditions surveys (2013/2014 and 2016/17), we investigate whether financial inclusion leads to improved nutrition in rural Rwanda. Our empirical evidence shows a robust positive impact of financial inclusion by formal financial institutions, although informal institutions like tontines were ineffective in improving food expenditure or nutrition. Furthermore, the heterogeneous marginal effects of financial inclusion reduce the gender gap between the food expenditure and nutrition of female- and male-headed households. The results, hence, suggest that the country should promote formal financial inclusion to provide wide-ranging welfare effects by improving food security, nutrition and food expenditure in its rural communities.
{"title":"Financial inclusion and nutrition among rural households in Rwanda","authors":"Ranjula Bali Swain, Aimable Nsabimana","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae007","url":null,"abstract":"Using Rwandan Integrated Household Living Conditions surveys (2013/2014 and 2016/17), we investigate whether financial inclusion leads to improved nutrition in rural Rwanda. Our empirical evidence shows a robust positive impact of financial inclusion by formal financial institutions, although informal institutions like tontines were ineffective in improving food expenditure or nutrition. Furthermore, the heterogeneous marginal effects of financial inclusion reduce the gender gap between the food expenditure and nutrition of female- and male-headed households. The results, hence, suggest that the country should promote formal financial inclusion to provide wide-ranging welfare effects by improving food security, nutrition and food expenditure in its rural communities.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140352200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Randomised control trials (RCTs) and field studies are two empirical approaches. We conducted a field study analysing the adoption of Bt eggplant in Bangladesh and compared the results of previous RCTs. We find that Bt eggplant raises yields, lowers total cost and pesticide costs and generates a price premium compared to non-Bt eggplant, increasing profits by 23 per cent. We also identify factors contributing to adopting Bt eggplant, including better access to credit, farm sizes and expected profitability. Our low-cost field study confirms the impact assessment results of RCTs and provides insight into factors affecting adoption.
{"title":"Complementarity of field studies and RCTs: evidence from Bt eggplant in Bangladesh","authors":"Ahsanuzzaman, Hamza Husain, David Zilberman","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbae003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Randomised control trials (RCTs) and field studies are two empirical approaches. We conducted a field study analysing the adoption of Bt eggplant in Bangladesh and compared the results of previous RCTs. We find that Bt eggplant raises yields, lowers total cost and pesticide costs and generates a price premium compared to non-Bt eggplant, increasing profits by 23 per cent. We also identify factors contributing to adopting Bt eggplant, including better access to credit, farm sizes and expected profitability. Our low-cost field study confirms the impact assessment results of RCTs and provides insight into factors affecting adoption.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140229407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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