土耳其的决议进程和成为地区强国的努力:前景与制约因素

Özlem KAYHAN PUSANE
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摘要

到目前为止,学者们从不同的角度研究了土耳其的库尔德解决/和平进程(2013-2015)。虽然一些作品追求理性选择的方法,并将重点放在正义与发展党(AKP)政府对库尔德工人党发起和平进程并将其维持到2015年的战略计算上,但其他作品则在冲突解决奖学金的框架内分析了土耳其的经验。相反,本文的出发点是,2013-2015年的决议进程不仅仅是结束内部冲突的政策,而是正义与发展党将土耳其转变为地区大国的持续努力的一个关键方面。本文将2013-2015年的决议进程置于区域和全球动态的框架内,并认为从2000年代中期开始,正义与发展党政府为结束库尔德工人党恐怖主义和解决土耳其的库尔德问题所做的努力反映了一个中等大国的政策,即土耳其,其目的是增加其在该地区的权力和影响力,而不仅仅是国内和平进程。因此,2015年决议进程的结束限制了土耳其在中东及其他地区的潜在成就。
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Türkiye’nin Çözüm Süreci ve Bölgesel Güç Olma Çabaları: Beklentiler ve Kısıtlar
Scholars have so far examined Turkey’s Kurdish resolution/peace process (2013-2015) from various perspectives. While some works have pursued a rational choice approach and focused on the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis the PKK in initiating a peace process and maintaining it until 2015, others have analyzed Turkey’s experience within the framework of the conflict resolution scholarship. Instead, this paper’s starting point is the idea that the 2013-2015 resolution process was not merely a policy to put an end to an internal conflict, but it rather constituted a key aspect of the AKP’s ongoing endeavor to turn Turkey into a regional power. This paper places the 2013-2015 resolution process within the framework of regional and global dynamics and argues that from the mid-2000s onwards, the AKP government’s efforts to put an end to the PKK terrorism and resolve the Kurdish question in Turkey reflected the policy of a middle-power country, i.e. Turkey, to increase its power and influence in the region instead of a mere domestic peace process. Thus, the end of the resolution process in 2015 constrained Turkey’s potential achievements in the Middle East and beyond.
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