分析中国货币政策与住宅物业价格之间的内在关系

Qihao Zhou, Muhammad Safdar Sial, Susana Álvarez-Otero, Asma Salman, Wei Liu
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摘要

政策制定者和公众对房价波动表示担忧,因为这可能会增加消费成本,并对住房负担能力产生负面影响。实证研究表明,房地产行业的扩张对企业的固定资产投资有重大影响。这种影响主要归因于货币政策传导的改变。房地产投资被认为是一种可行的选择,因为房地产价格大幅快速上涨。本研究的主要目的是探讨货币政策对中国房地产市场的影响。为了开展本研究,我们收集了从 2012 年第四季度到 2022 年第四季度共 44 个时间段的宏观经济数据。我们的研究结果表明,在中国,相对于房地产本身的供应,货币供应的扩张更倾向于对房地产供应商和客户的借贷活动产生积极影响。调整货币供应量和利率等政府行为会对房地产市场产生影响。尽管学者们已经对这一主题进行了广泛研究,但对中国房地产市场易受政府宏观经济政策影响的研究仍相对不足。此外,本研究全面概述了中国住宅房地产市场当前面临的挑战,强调了宏观经济政策在这一特定背景下的重要性。
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ANALYZING THE UNDERLYING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES IN CHINA
Policymakers and the public express concern regarding the volatility of housing prices due to its potential to increase consumer costs and negatively impact housing affordability. Based on empirical study, it has been seen that the expansion of the real estate sector has a significant impact on the investment in fixed assets by firms. This influence is mostly attributed to the alteration of the transmission of monetary policy. Real estate investment is considered a feasible option because of the significant and rapid appreciation in property prices. The primary objective of this study is to examine the influence of monetary policy on the housing market in China. To conduct the current study, macroeconomic data from a total of 44 time periods, ranging from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2022, was collected. The findings of our study indicate that in the context of China, an expansion in the money supply has a greater propensity to positively influence the borrowing activities of real estate suppliers and clients, as opposed to the supply of properties themselves. The housing market can be influenced by governmental actions such as adjustments to the money supply and interest rates. While scholars have extensively examined the subject matter, the housing market in China remains relatively under-researched in terms of its susceptibility to government macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the current study offers a comprehensive overview of the prevailing challenges encountered by the residential property market in China, emphasizing the significance of macroeconomic policies within this particular context.
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