基于地方 Geary C 统计学识别手足口病地方集群

Thi-Quynh Nguyen, Thi-Tuyet-Mai Nguyen
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摘要

背景:手足口病(HFMD)是由肠道病毒引起的一种常见儿童疾病。手足口病在越南的发病率越来越高。为了更好地了解手足口病的流行病学,本研究旨在调查当地 Geary's C 统计法在识别越南胡志明市手足口病地方集群中的应用。方法:首先使用直方图研究手足口病病例和手足口病发病率的分布情况。然后应用地方 Geary C 统计法确定手足口病例和手足口病发病率的空间集群,包括高-高、低-低、阴性集群和其他阳性集群。最后,利用在胡志明收集的手足口病病例和感染率来探索手足口病的空间集群。结果:结果发现,在使用手足口病病例的情况下,成功发现了位于市中心第 12 区和 Binh Tan 的两个高发病群、位于市中心东部第 5 区的一个低发病群以及位于城市西部 Binh Thanh 和第 7 区的两个阴性发病群。另一方面,在使用手足口病感染率的情况下,共成功检测到 3 个高感染群、1 个低感染群、1 个阴性群和 1 个其他阳性群,其中,3 个高感染群分别位于城市东部的 Binh Tan(289 例/100 000 名居民)、Binh Chanh(283 例/100 000 名居民)和 Tan Phu(281 例/100 000 名居民)。结论:本研究的结果证实了当地 Geary's C 统计法在确定手足口病空间集群方面的实用性。
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Identification Of Local Clusters Of Hand Foot And Mouth Disease Based On Local Geary C Statistic
Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by enteroviruses. Increasingly, the disease has a substantial burden throughout Vietnam. To better understand of the epidemiology of HFMD, this study aims to investigate the use of local Geary’s C statistic in the identification of local clusters of HFMD in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. Methods: Histogram was first used to study the distribution of HFMD cases the incidence of HFMD. Local Geary C statistics was then applied to identify the spatial clusters of HFMD cases and HFMD incidence including high-high, low-low, negative and other positive clusters. Finally, HFMD cases and infection rates collected in Ho Chi Minh were used to explore the spatial clusters of HFMD. Results: It was found that, in the case of using HFMD cases, two high-high clusters in District 12 and Binh Tan in the city center, one low-low cluster in District 5 in the east of the city center and two negative clusters in Binh Thanh and District 7 in the west of the city were successfully detected. On the other hand, in the case of using HFMD infection rates, a total of three high-high clusters, one low-low cluster, one negative and one other positive clusters were successfully detected, in which, the three high-high clusters were found in the districts of Binh Tan (289 cases/100,000 inhabitants), Binh Chanh (283 cases/100,000 inhabitants) and Tan Phu (281 cases/100,000 inhabitants) in the east of the city. Conclusions: findings in this study confirm the usefulness of local Geary’s C statistic in the identification of spatial clusters of HFMD.
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