Cross-level steam load smoothing and optimization in industrial parks using data-driven approaches

This study focuses on the integrated energy production system in industrial parks, addressing the problem of stable load dispatch of equipment under demand fluctuations. A cross-level method for steam load smoothing and optimization is proposed, aiming to achieve stable production and optimal economic performance through three levels of integration: load forecasting, load dispatch, and load regulation. Unlike traditional methods that directly use load forecasting values, heat network elasticity is presented as a buffer between demand and supply. Constraints for minimal changes in equipment load and operational parameters are established for smooth regulation. Industrial cases demonstrate that the load forecasting model has mean absolute percentage errors of 2.44% and 1.68% for medium-pressure and low-pressure steam, respectively, meeting accuracy requirements. The modified supply-side load smoothness is effectively improved by considering heat network elasticity. The method increases boiler efficiency by 1.92%, reducing average coal consumption by 0.92 t/h. Compared to manual operation, the proposed model leads to an average increase of 5.69 MW in power generation and an average reduction of 10.81% in coal-to-electricity ratio. This study verifies the importance of smooth integration across different levels and analyzes the effective response of the proposed method to the uncertainty in load forecasting. The method demonstrates the enormous potential of data-driven methods in achieving safe, economical, and sustainable production in industrial parks.