Displacement and damage analysis of earth dams during the 2023 Turkiye earthquake sequence

The earthquake sequence that occurred on 6 February 2023 in Turkiye caused significant damage to various infrastructures including geostructures such as dams. A total of 17 earth dams within a 200-km radius of the earthquake epicenter experienced varying degrees of damage, ranging from minor (∼2 cm) to major (up to ∼150 cm) deformations. As study of these reveals that the damaged dams are located within the closest distance to the fault of less than 30 km, with an average value of ∼12 km. This study specifically focuses on the seismic displacement analysis of the 17 damaged dams, utilizing the sliding block methods. The recorded motion data was analyzed using the kriging technique to estimate the spectral response at the dam sites. Moreover, the recorded ground motions were scaled to the resonant period of the dam site to estimate acceleration time history. The findings reveal that the rigid block analysis can provide an average estimation of seismic displacement with a relative error of less than 44%. The results of the damage analysis indicate that seven dams reached the ultimate limit state and two dams experienced the serviceability limit state. Moreover, the univariate and multivariate fragility functions are developed to estimate seismic probabilistic analysis of earth dams based on the observed data and the limit states. The results show that the selection of a single intensity measure (IM) and a combination of IMs can affect the predicted probability of failure. The findings provide an insight into the resilience assessment of dams and other geosystems during this strong earthquake.