Pub Date : 2024-08-09DOI: 10.1177/87552930241267749
Shako Mohammed, Rashid Shams, Chukuebuka C Nweke, T. Buckreis, Monica D Kohler, Y. Bozorgnia, Jonathan P Stewart
A source of ground-motion recordings in urban Los Angeles that has seen limited prior application is the Community Seismic Network (CSN), which uses low-cost, micro–electro–mechanical system (MEMS) sensors that are deployed at much higher densities than stations for other networks. We processed CSN data for the 29 earthquakes with M > 4 between July 2012 and January 2023 that produced CSN recordings, including selection of high- and low-pass corner frequencies ( fcHP and fcLP, respectively). Each record was classified as follows: (1) Broadband Record (BBR)—relatively broad usable frequency range from fcHP < 0.5 to fcLP > 10 Hz; (2) Narrowband Record (NBR)—limited usable frequency range relative to those for BBR; and (3) Rejected Record (REJ)—noise-dominated. We compare recordings from proximate (within 3 km) CSN and non-CSN stations (screened to only include cases of similar surface geology and favorable CSN instrument housing). We find similar high- to medium-frequency ground motions (i.e. peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Sa for T < 5 s) from CSN BBR and non-CSN stations, whereas NBRs have lower amplitudes. We examine PGA distributions for BBR and REJ records and find them to be distinguished, on average across the network, at 0.005 g, whereas 0.0015 g was found to be the threshold between usable records (BBR and NBR) and pre-event noise. Recordings with amplitudes near or below these thresholds are generally noise-dominated, reflecting environmental and anthropogenic ground vibrations and instrument noise. We find nominally higher noise levels in areas of high-population density and lower noise levels by a factor of about 1.5 in low-population density areas. By applying the 0.0015 g threshold, limiting distances for the network-average site condition, based on the expected fifth-percentile ground-motion levels, are 89, 210, 280, and 370 km for M 5, 6, 7, and 8 events, respectively.
{"title":"Usability of Community Seismic Network recordings for ground-motion modeling","authors":"Shako Mohammed, Rashid Shams, Chukuebuka C Nweke, T. Buckreis, Monica D Kohler, Y. Bozorgnia, Jonathan P Stewart","doi":"10.1177/87552930241267749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241267749","url":null,"abstract":"A source of ground-motion recordings in urban Los Angeles that has seen limited prior application is the Community Seismic Network (CSN), which uses low-cost, micro–electro–mechanical system (MEMS) sensors that are deployed at much higher densities than stations for other networks. We processed CSN data for the 29 earthquakes with M > 4 between July 2012 and January 2023 that produced CSN recordings, including selection of high- and low-pass corner frequencies ( fcHP and fcLP, respectively). Each record was classified as follows: (1) Broadband Record (BBR)—relatively broad usable frequency range from fcHP < 0.5 to fcLP > 10 Hz; (2) Narrowband Record (NBR)—limited usable frequency range relative to those for BBR; and (3) Rejected Record (REJ)—noise-dominated. We compare recordings from proximate (within 3 km) CSN and non-CSN stations (screened to only include cases of similar surface geology and favorable CSN instrument housing). We find similar high- to medium-frequency ground motions (i.e. peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Sa for T < 5 s) from CSN BBR and non-CSN stations, whereas NBRs have lower amplitudes. We examine PGA distributions for BBR and REJ records and find them to be distinguished, on average across the network, at 0.005 g, whereas 0.0015 g was found to be the threshold between usable records (BBR and NBR) and pre-event noise. Recordings with amplitudes near or below these thresholds are generally noise-dominated, reflecting environmental and anthropogenic ground vibrations and instrument noise. We find nominally higher noise levels in areas of high-population density and lower noise levels by a factor of about 1.5 in low-population density areas. By applying the 0.0015 g threshold, limiting distances for the network-average site condition, based on the expected fifth-percentile ground-motion levels, are 89, 210, 280, and 370 km for M 5, 6, 7, and 8 events, respectively.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"7 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141925143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-08DOI: 10.1177/87552930241266808
Jorge-Mario Lozano, Iris Tien, Elliot Nichols, J. D. Frost
Accurate damage assessment after an earthquake is crucial for effective emergency response. Using ground motion information enables rapid building damage assessment when detailed damage data are unavailable. While uncertainty in earthquake parameters plays a significant role in the accuracy of rapid estimations, it is usually treated as a constant parameter rather than as a dynamic parameter that considers the amount of ground motion data collected that evolve over time. This work investigates the impact of incorporating evolving ground motion uncertainty in ground motion estimations from US Geological Survey’s (USGS) ShakeMap on post-disaster damage assessments from two methodologies: the revised Thiel–Zsutty (TZR) model and Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazus. Using data from the 2020 Indios earthquake in Puerto Rico and the 2014 Napa earthquake, we find that changes in uncertainty in estimates of peak ground acceleration reach 65% between early and late versions of the ShakeMap. We propose a process to integrate this evolution with the two damage assessment methodologies through a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach, demonstrating that it is critical to introduce dynamic ground motion uncertainty in the damage assessment process to avoid propagating unreliable measures. Both methodologies show that resulting damage estimates can be characterized by narrower distributions, indicative of reduced uncertainty and increased precision in damage estimates. For the TZR model, an improved estimate of post-disaster loss is achieved with narrower bounds in distributions of expected high scenario loss. For Hazus, the results show potential changes in the most probable damage state with an average change of 13% in the most probable damage state. The described methodology also demonstrates how uncertainty in the resulting damage state distributions can be reduced compared with the use of the current Hazus methodology.
{"title":"Impact of ground motion uncertainty evolution from post-earthquake data on building damage assessment","authors":"Jorge-Mario Lozano, Iris Tien, Elliot Nichols, J. D. Frost","doi":"10.1177/87552930241266808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241266808","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate damage assessment after an earthquake is crucial for effective emergency response. Using ground motion information enables rapid building damage assessment when detailed damage data are unavailable. While uncertainty in earthquake parameters plays a significant role in the accuracy of rapid estimations, it is usually treated as a constant parameter rather than as a dynamic parameter that considers the amount of ground motion data collected that evolve over time. This work investigates the impact of incorporating evolving ground motion uncertainty in ground motion estimations from US Geological Survey’s (USGS) ShakeMap on post-disaster damage assessments from two methodologies: the revised Thiel–Zsutty (TZR) model and Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazus. Using data from the 2020 Indios earthquake in Puerto Rico and the 2014 Napa earthquake, we find that changes in uncertainty in estimates of peak ground acceleration reach 65% between early and late versions of the ShakeMap. We propose a process to integrate this evolution with the two damage assessment methodologies through a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach, demonstrating that it is critical to introduce dynamic ground motion uncertainty in the damage assessment process to avoid propagating unreliable measures. Both methodologies show that resulting damage estimates can be characterized by narrower distributions, indicative of reduced uncertainty and increased precision in damage estimates. For the TZR model, an improved estimate of post-disaster loss is achieved with narrower bounds in distributions of expected high scenario loss. For Hazus, the results show potential changes in the most probable damage state with an average change of 13% in the most probable damage state. The described methodology also demonstrates how uncertainty in the resulting damage state distributions can be reduced compared with the use of the current Hazus methodology.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"52 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141928291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-12DOI: 10.1177/87552930241256982
Francisco A Galvis, G. Deierlein, C. Molina Hutt
This article describes a detailed database of tall steel moment frame buildings that are representative of the construction practices in San Francisco prior to the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The database contains design details that affect the structural performance of steel moment frames, including frame geometry, member cross-section sizes, and gravity system characteristics. This database also captures irregularities that might impact seismic response, such as podiums, setbacks, mass concentrations (mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) floors), interrupted column lines, and atriums. The database includes information on 89 moment frame buildings, 14 of which were built before 1960 and are constructed with riveted connections, while the remaining 75 have welded flange connections like those that suffered brittle fracture during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The buildings are further distinguished between space frame, perimeter frame, and partial space frame systems. For about half (41/89) of the buildings in the database, section sizes of representative structural members were collected, which enabled the evaluation of the seismic design, elastic, and inelastic response using computational workflows. The design diagnostics indicate that most of the buildings meet the minimum seismic strength and strong-column weak-beam requirements of modern building codes, even though they were not necessarily designed with this intent. On the contrary, about one-third of the buildings do not meet the seismic design drift limit of current codes, and about half of them have weak beam-column panel zones. This database, associated structural analysis models, and processing scripts are published at DesignSafe https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-wjad-r340 to facilitate collaboration and continued development of open-source data for high-resolution simulations to inform risk mitigation strategies on a regional scale.
{"title":"Database of tall pre-Northridge steel moment frames for earthquake performance evaluations","authors":"Francisco A Galvis, G. Deierlein, C. Molina Hutt","doi":"10.1177/87552930241256982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241256982","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes a detailed database of tall steel moment frame buildings that are representative of the construction practices in San Francisco prior to the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The database contains design details that affect the structural performance of steel moment frames, including frame geometry, member cross-section sizes, and gravity system characteristics. This database also captures irregularities that might impact seismic response, such as podiums, setbacks, mass concentrations (mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) floors), interrupted column lines, and atriums. The database includes information on 89 moment frame buildings, 14 of which were built before 1960 and are constructed with riveted connections, while the remaining 75 have welded flange connections like those that suffered brittle fracture during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The buildings are further distinguished between space frame, perimeter frame, and partial space frame systems. For about half (41/89) of the buildings in the database, section sizes of representative structural members were collected, which enabled the evaluation of the seismic design, elastic, and inelastic response using computational workflows. The design diagnostics indicate that most of the buildings meet the minimum seismic strength and strong-column weak-beam requirements of modern building codes, even though they were not necessarily designed with this intent. On the contrary, about one-third of the buildings do not meet the seismic design drift limit of current codes, and about half of them have weak beam-column panel zones. This database, associated structural analysis models, and processing scripts are published at DesignSafe https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-wjad-r340 to facilitate collaboration and continued development of open-source data for high-resolution simulations to inform risk mitigation strategies on a regional scale.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"136 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141351169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-12DOI: 10.1177/87552930241255953
Zhenning Ba, Linghui Lyu, Jingxuan Zhao, Yushan Zhang, Yu Wang
Typically, it is challenging to incorporate near-surface soils into 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBSs) for ground-motion prediction. The low shear wave speed of near-surface soils, coupled with the complexity of the soil seismic response, poses significant difficulties. To overcome these limitations, a hybrid approach was proposed in this study, combining PBSs with artificial neural networks (ANNs). The essence of the hybrid method can be summarized as follows: (1) development of ANN models, establishing a strong-motion database, training the ANNs on it to predict the ground-motion parameters for East–West (EW), North–South (NS), and Vertical (UD) directions afterward; (2) establishment of 3D PBS model, obtaining the ground-motion parameters of the bedrock face corresponding to a certain shear wave speed; (3) application of the trained ANNs to predict the ground-motion parameters on the ground surface, taking the simulated results and related site parameters as inputs, and the outputs are peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral accelerations (Sa) at different periods on the ground surface. In this study, ANN models were trained on a strong-motion database based on Kiban–Kyoshin Network (KiK-net). After several verifications of the ANN predictions, a case study of the 21 October 2016 Mw6.2 Central Tottori earthquake was conducted. In addition to the comparison with observations, the broadband (0.1–10 Hz) results of the hybrid method were also compared with the results that obtained by transfer function based on recorded data and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method. In addition, the distribution of Sa for four periods in simulated area was presented. The performance of the hybrid method for predicting broadband ground-motion characteristics was generally satisfactory.
通常情况下，将近地表土壤纳入三维物理数值模拟（PBSs）进行地动预测具有挑战性。近地表土壤的剪切波速度较低，再加上土壤地震响应的复杂性，给预测带来了很大困难。为了克服这些局限性，本研究提出了一种混合方法，将物理模拟与人工神经网络（ANN）相结合。该混合方法的精髓可归纳如下：(1) 开发人工神经网络模型，建立强震数据库，训练人工神经网络，然后预测东西（EW）、南北（NS）和垂直（UD）方向的地震动参数；(2) 建立三维 PBS 模型，获取一定剪切波速度对应的基岩面地震动参数；(3) 以模拟结果和相关场地参数为输入，应用训练有素的 ANN 预测地表地动参数，输出为地表不同周期的峰值地加速度（PGA）和 5%阻尼谱加速度（Sa）。在这项研究中，基于 Kiban-Kyoshin 网络（KiK-net）的强运动数据库对 ANN 模型进行了训练。在对 ANN 预测进行多次验证后，对 2016 年 10 月 21 日 Mw6.2 中部鸟取地震进行了案例研究。除了与观测数据进行比较外，还将混合方法的宽带（0.1-10 Hz）结果与基于记录数据的传递函数和下一代衰减（NGA）-West2 地动预测方程（GMPEs）得出的结果进行了比较，以证明所提方法的有效性和适用性。此外，还介绍了模拟区域四个时段的 Sa 分布情况。混合方法在预测宽带地动特性方面的性能总体上令人满意。
{"title":"Predicting the seismic ground-motion parameters: 3D physics-based numerical simulations combined with artificial neural networks","authors":"Zhenning Ba, Linghui Lyu, Jingxuan Zhao, Yushan Zhang, Yu Wang","doi":"10.1177/87552930241255953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241255953","url":null,"abstract":"Typically, it is challenging to incorporate near-surface soils into 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBSs) for ground-motion prediction. The low shear wave speed of near-surface soils, coupled with the complexity of the soil seismic response, poses significant difficulties. To overcome these limitations, a hybrid approach was proposed in this study, combining PBSs with artificial neural networks (ANNs). The essence of the hybrid method can be summarized as follows: (1) development of ANN models, establishing a strong-motion database, training the ANNs on it to predict the ground-motion parameters for East–West (EW), North–South (NS), and Vertical (UD) directions afterward; (2) establishment of 3D PBS model, obtaining the ground-motion parameters of the bedrock face corresponding to a certain shear wave speed; (3) application of the trained ANNs to predict the ground-motion parameters on the ground surface, taking the simulated results and related site parameters as inputs, and the outputs are peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral accelerations (Sa) at different periods on the ground surface. In this study, ANN models were trained on a strong-motion database based on Kiban–Kyoshin Network (KiK-net). After several verifications of the ANN predictions, a case study of the 21 October 2016 Mw6.2 Central Tottori earthquake was conducted. In addition to the comparison with observations, the broadband (0.1–10 Hz) results of the hybrid method were also compared with the results that obtained by transfer function based on recorded data and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method. In addition, the distribution of Sa for four periods in simulated area was presented. The performance of the hybrid method for predicting broadband ground-motion characteristics was generally satisfactory.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"14 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141351064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1177/87552930241254355
Naveen Senthil, Ting Lin
Despite the utilization of the prominent ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) method—the exact conditional spectrum (CS-exact)—for site-specific ground motion selection, limited ground motion availability may result in records that may not fully represent regional site characteristics or capture the underlying distribution of causal parameters. In this article, we explore an alternative record selection approach, termed conditional spectrum utilizing stochastic ground motion modeling (CS-SGMM), to select site-specific CS-based ground motions by leveraging an illustrative site-based stochastic ground motion model, specifically aimed at addressing the challenges caused by data limitations. This approach involves modifying the parameters of the stochastic ground motion model through constrained optimization to match the target CS within the desired period range of interest while aligning with regional trends. This involves incorporating causative parameters to select site-specific ground motions matching the target CS. Subsequently, we implement a redistribution procedure to ensure that the selected ground motions effectively represent the distribution of causal scenarios, thereby achieving higher hazard consistency in CS-based selection. Illustrative examples from a site in the Western United States demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across different structural periods and ground motion intensity levels. Finally, we evaluate the viability of our approach by comparing the selected set of ground motions with those chosen using contemporary GMSM methods, such as CS-exact and generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM), which select records based on spectral shape and both spectral shape and duration, respectively.
{"title":"Site-specific selection of conditional spectrum-based motions through modified stochastic ground motion modeling","authors":"Naveen Senthil, Ting Lin","doi":"10.1177/87552930241254355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241254355","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the utilization of the prominent ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) method—the exact conditional spectrum (CS-exact)—for site-specific ground motion selection, limited ground motion availability may result in records that may not fully represent regional site characteristics or capture the underlying distribution of causal parameters. In this article, we explore an alternative record selection approach, termed conditional spectrum utilizing stochastic ground motion modeling (CS-SGMM), to select site-specific CS-based ground motions by leveraging an illustrative site-based stochastic ground motion model, specifically aimed at addressing the challenges caused by data limitations. This approach involves modifying the parameters of the stochastic ground motion model through constrained optimization to match the target CS within the desired period range of interest while aligning with regional trends. This involves incorporating causative parameters to select site-specific ground motions matching the target CS. Subsequently, we implement a redistribution procedure to ensure that the selected ground motions effectively represent the distribution of causal scenarios, thereby achieving higher hazard consistency in CS-based selection. Illustrative examples from a site in the Western United States demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across different structural periods and ground motion intensity levels. Finally, we evaluate the viability of our approach by comparing the selected set of ground motions with those chosen using contemporary GMSM methods, such as CS-exact and generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM), which select records based on spectral shape and both spectral shape and duration, respectively.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":" 64","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141374177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1177/87552930241253837
Robert E Chase, K. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen
We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.
{"title":"Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model","authors":"Robert E Chase, K. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen","doi":"10.1177/87552930241253837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241253837","url":null,"abstract":"We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":" 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141372610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1177/87552930241256673
James A Smith, M. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson
We evaluate Cascadia subduction ground-motion models (GMMs), considered for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update, by comparing observations to model predictions. The observations comprise regional recordings from intraslab earthquakes, including contributions from 2021 and 2022 events in southern Cascadia and global records from interface earthquakes. Since the 2018 NSHM update, new GMMs for Cascadia have been published by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-Subduction Project that require independent evaluation. In the regional intraslab comparisons, we highlight a characteristic frequency dependence for Cascadia data, with short periods having lower ground motions and longer periods being comparable to other subduction zones. We evaluate differences in northern and southern Cascadia and find that the NGA-Subduction GMMs developed using southern Cascadia data perform better in this region than the model that did not consider these data. We compare ground-motion variability in Cascadia with the NGA-Subduction model predictions and find differences at short periods ( T = 0.1 s) due to the use of global versus regional data in the development of these models. Moreover, the within-event component of aleatory variability from the GMMs overpredicts the standard deviation of Cascadia recordings at very short periods ( T < 0.05 s). Using global interface earthquakes as a proxy to evaluate the Cascadia GMMs, we find long-period overprediction from a simulation-based GMM and some of the empirical GMMs. When comparing recent observations, we find a similar misfit to GMMs and the 2010 and 2022 Ferndale earthquakes. Finally, we observe different basin amplification factors arising in different subsets of the data, which indicate that differences in basin factors between empirical GMMs could arise from the data selection choices by the developers. As part of evaluating the regional basin terms, we apply basin amplification factors from the magnitude 9 Cascadia earthquake simulations to the empirical GMMs for interface earthquakes. The comparisons presented in this study indicate that the NGA-Subduction GMMs for Cascadia perform well relative to observations and older subduction GMMs.
{"title":"Comparing subduction ground-motion models to observations for Cascadia","authors":"James A Smith, M. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson","doi":"10.1177/87552930241256673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241256673","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate Cascadia subduction ground-motion models (GMMs), considered for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update, by comparing observations to model predictions. The observations comprise regional recordings from intraslab earthquakes, including contributions from 2021 and 2022 events in southern Cascadia and global records from interface earthquakes. Since the 2018 NSHM update, new GMMs for Cascadia have been published by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-Subduction Project that require independent evaluation. In the regional intraslab comparisons, we highlight a characteristic frequency dependence for Cascadia data, with short periods having lower ground motions and longer periods being comparable to other subduction zones. We evaluate differences in northern and southern Cascadia and find that the NGA-Subduction GMMs developed using southern Cascadia data perform better in this region than the model that did not consider these data. We compare ground-motion variability in Cascadia with the NGA-Subduction model predictions and find differences at short periods ( T = 0.1 s) due to the use of global versus regional data in the development of these models. Moreover, the within-event component of aleatory variability from the GMMs overpredicts the standard deviation of Cascadia recordings at very short periods ( T < 0.05 s). Using global interface earthquakes as a proxy to evaluate the Cascadia GMMs, we find long-period overprediction from a simulation-based GMM and some of the empirical GMMs. When comparing recent observations, we find a similar misfit to GMMs and the 2010 and 2022 Ferndale earthquakes. Finally, we observe different basin amplification factors arising in different subsets of the data, which indicate that differences in basin factors between empirical GMMs could arise from the data selection choices by the developers. As part of evaluating the regional basin terms, we apply basin amplification factors from the magnitude 9 Cascadia earthquake simulations to the empirical GMMs for interface earthquakes. The comparisons presented in this study indicate that the NGA-Subduction GMMs for Cascadia perform well relative to observations and older subduction GMMs.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":" 35","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141372503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-06DOI: 10.1177/87552930241255380
Chao Li, Pei Yang, Hong‐Nan Li, Hong Hao, Haiyang Pan, L. Tian, Ruisheng Ma
Pile-supported transmission tower-line systems (PTTSs) play a vital and indispensable role in reliable and efficient transmission of electricity. Their safety and normal operation under earthquake events are of great importance. Previous studies on seismic performance of PTTSs have typically been conducted under the assumptions of fixed foundations, uniform excitations, and deterministic seismic incident direction along the transmission lines, which do not necessarily reflect the real scenarios in earthquakes. To address this problem, a comprehensive seismic performance analysis approach is proposed for PTTSs spanning uneven sites, in which the influences of soil–structure interaction (SSI), depth-varying spatial ground motions (DSGMs), and seismic incident directions are thoroughly considered. In particular, the finite element model of a realistic PTTS is first established, and its accuracy is verified by static loading tests performed for the full-scale transmission tower. Then, the simulation approach for DSGMs considering the effects of wave passage, bidirectional coherence, and local site is introduced, and the DSGMs at heterogeneous site of the PTTS under various incident directions are stochastically synthesized. Finally, the seismic responses and fragilities of the PTTS are computed by utilizing the DSGMs from various incident directions as inputs. The results demonstrated that SSI, seismic excitation type, and incident direction can significantly affect the seismic performance of the PTTS, especially for the tower located at a soft site. Under various seismic incident directions, the difference between the largest and smallest fragility median peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the PTTS can reach more than 40%, and the conventional 0°, 90°, or 180° excitation may not be the most adverse incident direction. This study can provide an in-depth understanding of the seismic performance of PTTSs constructed along the sites with complex and varying geological conditions, which benefits the rational and reliable designs of large-scale transmission networks to ensure their safety and functionality under earthquake hazards.
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Pub Date : 2024-04-24DOI: 10.1177/87552930241240458
G. Prieto, Monica D Kohler
Coda wave interferometry is applied to data from Community Seismic Network MEMS accelerometers permanently installed on nearly every floor of a 52-story steel moment-and-brace frame building in downtown Los Angeles. Wavefield data from the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence are used to obtain impulse response functions, and time-varying damping ratios and shear-wave velocities are computed from them. The coda waves are used because of their increased sensitivity to changes in the building’s properties, and the approach is generalized to show that a building’s nonlinear response can be monitored through time-varying measurements of representative pseudo-linear systems in the time domain. The building was not damaged, but temporary nonlinear behavior observed during the strong motions provides a unique opportunity to test this method’s ability to map time-varying properties. Reference damping parameters and velocities are obtained from a month-long period during which no significant seismic activity had occurred. Damping ratios measured over narrow frequency bands increase by up to a factor of 4 over short time durations spanning the main shock, as well as M > 4.5 aftershocks and a foreshock. The largest damping ratio increases occur for the highest frequencies, and the increase is attributed to friction associated with structural and non-structural surface discontinuities which experience relative motion and impact during shaking, resulting in energy loss. Shear-wave velocities in the building’s east–west and north–south directions are found by applying a waveform stretching method to the direct and coda waves. The broadband velocities are reduced by as much as 10% during building shaking, and their restoration to pre-earthquake levels is found to be a function of shaking amplitudes. Until recently, these techniques had been limited by temporal and spatial sparsity of measurements, but in this study, variations of the impulse response functions are resolved over time scales of tens of seconds and on a floor-by-floor spatial scale.
{"title":"Time-varying damping ratios and velocities in a high-rise during earthquakes and ambient vibrations from coda wave interferometry","authors":"G. Prieto, Monica D Kohler","doi":"10.1177/87552930241240458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241240458","url":null,"abstract":"Coda wave interferometry is applied to data from Community Seismic Network MEMS accelerometers permanently installed on nearly every floor of a 52-story steel moment-and-brace frame building in downtown Los Angeles. Wavefield data from the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence are used to obtain impulse response functions, and time-varying damping ratios and shear-wave velocities are computed from them. The coda waves are used because of their increased sensitivity to changes in the building’s properties, and the approach is generalized to show that a building’s nonlinear response can be monitored through time-varying measurements of representative pseudo-linear systems in the time domain. The building was not damaged, but temporary nonlinear behavior observed during the strong motions provides a unique opportunity to test this method’s ability to map time-varying properties. Reference damping parameters and velocities are obtained from a month-long period during which no significant seismic activity had occurred. Damping ratios measured over narrow frequency bands increase by up to a factor of 4 over short time durations spanning the main shock, as well as M > 4.5 aftershocks and a foreshock. The largest damping ratio increases occur for the highest frequencies, and the increase is attributed to friction associated with structural and non-structural surface discontinuities which experience relative motion and impact during shaking, resulting in energy loss. Shear-wave velocities in the building’s east–west and north–south directions are found by applying a waveform stretching method to the direct and coda waves. The broadband velocities are reduced by as much as 10% during building shaking, and their restoration to pre-earthquake levels is found to be a function of shaking amplitudes. Until recently, these techniques had been limited by temporal and spatial sparsity of measurements, but in this study, variations of the impulse response functions are resolved over time scales of tens of seconds and on a floor-by-floor spatial scale.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"42 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140661312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-23DOI: 10.1177/87552930241243067
Jingwen He, E. Rathje
This article develops seismic capacity models for earth dams and demonstrates how the proposed seismic capacity models may be used to develop seismic fragility curves that predict the probability of damage as a function of ground shaking intensity. Developing earth dam fragility curves requires two major components: (1) a seismic capacity model that predicts the probability of a damage state given the relative settlement (RS) and (2) an engineering demand model that predicts the RS as a function of ground motion intensity. While seismic demand models for earth dams have been studied by various researchers, there is a scarcity of seismic capacity models. This article focuses first on developing seismic capacity relationships using a dataset of earthquake case histories of dam performance. Different from previously developed relationships, only the damage description for each dam is used when assigning the damage state, which results in statistical variability in the capacity relationship between the damage state and RS. The fragility curve development is demonstrated by combining the seismic capacity relationships with a seismic demand model for RS derived from nonlinear, dynamic finite element analyses for a 20-m generic dam geometry subjected to a suite of earthquake motions from the NGA-West2 database.
{"title":"Seismic capacity models for earth dams and their use in developing fragility curves","authors":"Jingwen He, E. Rathje","doi":"10.1177/87552930241243067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241243067","url":null,"abstract":"This article develops seismic capacity models for earth dams and demonstrates how the proposed seismic capacity models may be used to develop seismic fragility curves that predict the probability of damage as a function of ground shaking intensity. Developing earth dam fragility curves requires two major components: (1) a seismic capacity model that predicts the probability of a damage state given the relative settlement (RS) and (2) an engineering demand model that predicts the RS as a function of ground motion intensity. While seismic demand models for earth dams have been studied by various researchers, there is a scarcity of seismic capacity models. This article focuses first on developing seismic capacity relationships using a dataset of earthquake case histories of dam performance. Different from previously developed relationships, only the damage description for each dam is used when assigning the damage state, which results in statistical variability in the capacity relationship between the damage state and RS. The fragility curve development is demonstrated by combining the seismic capacity relationships with a seismic demand model for RS derived from nonlinear, dynamic finite element analyses for a 20-m generic dam geometry subjected to a suite of earthquake motions from the NGA-West2 database.","PeriodicalId":505879,"journal":{"name":"Earthquake Spectra","volume":"79 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140667891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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