Evaluation of an Impulse-Response Emulator for Groundwater Contaminant Transport Modeling.

There is a significant need to develop decision support tools capable of delivering accurate representations of environmental conditions, such as ground and surface water solute concentrations, in a timely and computationally efficient manner. Such tools can be leveraged to assess a large number of potential management strategies for mitigating non-point source pollutants. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the impulse-response emulation approach to approximate process-based groundwater model estimates of solute transport from MODFLOW and MT3D over a wide range of model inputs and parameters, with the goal of assessing where in parameter space the assumptions underlying this emulation approach are valid. The impulse-response emulator was developed using the sensitivity analysis utilities in the PEST++ software suite and is capable of approximating MODFLOW/MT3D estimates of solute transport over a large portion of the parameter space tested, except in cases where the Courant number is above 0.5. Across all runs tested, the highest percent errors were at the plume fronts. These results suggest that the impulse-response approach may be suitable for emulation of solute transport models for a wide range of cases, except when high-resolution outputs are needed, or when very low concentrations at plume edges are of particular interest.