越南是否面临十年危机?

Tuan Dinh Cong, Sun Ying Jun
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摘要

从2018年开始,全球经济开始强劲同步增长,但随着2018年的过去,发展势头变缓、褪色,伴随偏强增长态势。得益于年初的财政刺激政策,美国经济加速增长,而欧盟、英国、日本和中国的经济则开始走弱。这些差异将在2019年继续存在,越南也不例外。本研究将对 2007 年至今的越南经济进行深入探讨,并对未来一段时间的越南经济进行预测。目标:本研究旨在通过分析多个经济指标,如 2007 年至 2018 年期间的经济增长率、通货膨胀率、失业率、进出口等,为越南经济在未来几年的持续发展提供预测和建议。 材料与方法从国家金融委员会提供的文件和经济网站上收集了有关越南经济和危机趋势的一般信息。然后,作者分析和比较了不同年份之间的情况,并制作了表格以清楚地显示出来。次要数据,如理论框架和文献,来自参考书、科学书籍、科学文章和同行评审期刊。研究结果2007 年以来的经济波动很大:经济增长率下降不定,难以预测;失业率和通货膨胀率仍然是个大问题,而进出口和投资却逐渐繁荣。结论:越南经济正走在良好、快速增长的道路上,拥有许多经济优势。然而,从本质上讲,越南仍然是一个年轻的经济体,因此我们需要做好充分准备,以应对可能发生的重大经济波动,明年可能是十年危机期的开局之年。
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A Closer look into recent economy, Whether or not Vietnam faces  a 10-year crisis?
From 2018, the global economy began to grow strongly and synchronously, but as 2018 passed, the development momentum has become slower, faded, along with biased growing trends. The US economy has accelerated thanks to fiscal stimulus policies early this year, while the economy of the EU, Britain, Japan and China began to weaken. These differences will continue to exist in 2019 and Vietnam is not excluded. This study is a closer look into Vietnamese economy from 2007 up to now & prediction to the upcoming period. Objective: The present study aims at giving predictions & recommendations to sustain Vietnam’s economy in the next years based on analyzing multiple economic indicators such as: economic growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, import and export throughout the period 2007 – 2018.  Material and methods: General information about the Vietnam’s economy & crisis trend was collected from the documentation provided by National Financial Committee as well as economic websites. Then, the authors analyzed & made comparisons between years to years & created tables to show them clearly. Secondary data, such as theoretical frameworks and literature, were obtained from reference books, scientific books, scientific articles and peer reviewed journals. Results: The economy since 2007 has been so volatile: the economic growth rate fell erratically, unpredictably; unemployment & inflation rate are still really big problems while import, export & investment have prospered gradually. Conclusions: Vietnam's economy is on a good & rapid growth path, with many economic advantages. However, in essence, Vietnam is still a young economy, so we need to be well prepared to cope with major economic fluctuations that may occur, possibly next year – the beginning year of the 10-year crisis period.
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