预期漂移的原因和后果。

IF 4.8 1区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Psychological Science Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-18 DOI:10.1177/09567976241235930
William J Villano, Noah I Kraus, T Rick Reneau, Brittany A Jaso, A Ross Otto, Aaron S Heller
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引用次数: 0

摘要

等待不确定结果的消息是令人痛苦的,因为消息可能会令人失望。为了避免这种失望,人们通常会 "做最坏的打算",在消息到来之前悲观地降低预期,以减少意外失望的可能性(负预测误差,或 PE)。计算决策研究通常假定预期不会在试验中发生漂移,但目前还不清楚在现实世界的高风险环境中,预期是否会悲观地发生漂移,影响预期漂移的因素是什么,以及预期漂移是否能有效缓冲对目标相关结果的情绪反应。此外,个人通过体育学习来准确预测未来结果,但期望漂移是否也会阻碍基于体育的学习,目前尚不清楚。在一个等待考试成绩的学生样本(N = 625)中,我们发现期望经常发生偏移,而且倾向于悲观地偏移。我们证明,支撑会受到不确定性的优先调节;它会暂时缓冲负面体育考试的初始情绪影响,但会损害基于体育考试的学习,反直觉地将不确定性维持到未来。
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The Causes and Consequences of Drifting Expectations.

Awaiting news of uncertain outcomes is distressing because the news might be disappointing. To prevent such disappointments, people often "brace for the worst," pessimistically lowering expectations before news arrives to decrease the possibility of surprising disappointment (a negative prediction error, or PE). Computational decision-making research commonly assumes that expectations do not drift within trials, yet it is unclear whether expectations pessimistically drift in real-world, high-stakes settings, what factors influence expectation drift, and whether it effectively buffers emotional responses to goal-relevant outcomes. Moreover, individuals learn from PEs to accurately anticipate future outcomes, but it is unknown whether expectation drift also impedes PE-based learning. In a sample of students awaiting exam grades (N = 625), we found that expectations often drift and tend to drift pessimistically. We demonstrate that bracing is preferentially modulated by uncertainty; it transiently buffers the initial emotional impact of negative PEs but impairs PE-based learning, counterintuitively sustaining uncertainty into the future.

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来源期刊
Psychological Science
Psychological Science PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
13.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
156
期刊介绍: Psychological Science, the flagship journal of The Association for Psychological Science (previously the American Psychological Society), is a leading publication in the field with a citation ranking/impact factor among the top ten worldwide. It publishes authoritative articles covering various domains of psychological science, including brain and behavior, clinical science, cognition, learning and memory, social psychology, and developmental psychology. In addition to full-length articles, the journal features summaries of new research developments and discussions on psychological issues in government and public affairs. "Psychological Science" is published twelve times annually.
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