Psychological Science最新文献

Intelligence is known to predict survival, but it remains unclear whether cognitive abilities differ in their relationship to survival in old age. We analyzed longitudinal data of 516 healthy adults (age: M = 84.92 years, SD = 8.66 years at Wave 1) from the Berlin Aging Study (Germany) on nine tasks of perceptual speed, episodic memory, verbal fluency, and verbal knowledge, and a general composite intelligence score. There were eight waves, with up to 18 years of follow-up; all participants were deceased by the time of analysis. We used a joint multivariate longitudinal survival model to estimate the unique contribution of each cognitive ability in terms of true (i.e., error-free) current value and current rate of change when predicting survival. Additional survival covariates included age at first occasion, sex, sociobiographical status, and suspected dementia. Only the two verbal-fluency measures were uniquely predictive of mortality risk. Thus, verbal fluency showed more salient associations with mortality risk than did measures of perceptual speed, episodic memory, and verbal knowledge.

There are many ways to describe and represent the visuospatial world. A space can be described by its euclidean properties-the size of objects, the angles of boundaries, the distances between them. A space can also be described in nonspatial terms: One could explain the layout of a city by the order of its streets. Somewhere in between, topological representations-such as those commonly depicted in public-transit maps-capture coarse relational structure without precise euclidean detail, offering a relatively efficient, low-dimensional way of capturing spatial content. Here, we ask whether human adults quickly and automatically perceive such relations. In six experiments, we show that differences in simple topological features influence a range of visual tasks from object matching to number estimation to visual search. We discuss the possibility that topological relations are a kind of visual primitive that supports visuospatial representation.

Using data from a geopolitical forecasting tournament, Mellers et al. (2014) [Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25, 1106-1115] concluded that forecasting ability was improved by allowing participants to work in teams and providing them with probability training. Here, we reevaluated Mellers et al.'s conclusions using an item response theory framework that models latent ability from forecasting choices. We found that the relationship between latent ability estimates and forecast accuracy differed from the interpretation of the original findings once key extraneous variables were statistically controlled. The best fit models across the first 2 years of the tournament included one or more extraneous variables that substantially eliminated, reduced, and, in some cases, even reversed the effects of the experimental manipulations of teaming and training on latent forecasting ability. We also show that latent traits associated with strategic responding can discriminate between superforecasters and non-superforecasters, making it difficult to identify the latent factors that underlie the superforecasters' superior performance.

Most work on working memory development has children remember a set of items as well as they can. However, this approach sidesteps the extended mind, the integration of external information with memory. Indeed, adults prefer to use external resources (e.g., lists, models) but will remember more as the cost to access them increases. Here, in our shopping game, we investigated this trade-off in 5- to 8-year-olds. Using a touchscreen, children shopped in a virtual store. Their shopping list and the store were not visible simultaneously but could be toggled. We manipulated access cost by varying a delay (0-4 s) before the list's reappearance. Across three preregistered experiments at two sites (the United States and China, N = 141), a pattern emerged: When it was costlier to do so, children revisited the list less often, studied it longer, and selected more correct items. Also, children recognized the costs, identifying the no-delay condition as easier. Young children showed a cost-dependent trade-off of external-resource use versus working memory.

Humanity spends an increasing proportion of its time interacting online, yet-given the importance of social media to human welfare-the external factors that regularly shape online behavior remain markedly understudied. Do environmental factors alter rates of online social activity? We conducted two large natural experiments to investigate how worse weather conditions affect social-media use in the United States, analyzing over 3.5 billion posts from Facebook and Twitter (now X) between 2009 and 2016. We found that extreme temperatures and added precipitation each independently amplified social-media activity, effects that persisted within individuals. Compounded weather extremes produced markedly larger increases in social-media activity. Days colder than -5 °C with 1.5 to 2 cm of precipitation elevated social-media activity by 35%, nearly triple the surge seen on New Year's Eve in New York City. Our study highlights that environmental conditions play a critical-but overlooked-role in shaping digital social interaction.

What does it take to become an adult in Africa? Life-span-development literature includes little exploration on this transition outside Western countries. A qualitative approach was used to identify locally relevant topics and variables in an understudied African context. Fifty 18- to 25-year-old Ovambo Namibians from rural and urban areas were interviewed. Results of reflexive thematic analysis suggest the significance of gender and birth order in defining adult roles and the completion of one's education as a new rite of passage. Full adult personhood means providing for and engaging with a larger community as well as one's children and extended family, reflecting the ongoing relevance of African communalism in today's society. Youth in Namibia, and likely in sub-Saharan Africa more broadly, balance traditional and contemporary demands as they come of age in a postindependence, globalizing society. Our findings reflect the centrality of community and the intermingled nature of agentic and communal values in this process.

Being romantically partnered is widely seen as a societal norm, and it has been shown to be positively associated with important life outcomes, such as physical and mental health. However, the percentage of singles is steadily increasing, with more people staying single for life. We used the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE; N = 77,064, mainly ≥ 50 years, 27 countries) to investigate Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction in lifelong singles compared with ever-partnered individuals. Specification-curve analyses suggested that lifelong singles were less extraverted, less conscientious, less open to experiences (dependent on singlehood definition), and less satisfied with their lives. Effects were stronger for never-partnered than for never-cohabitating or never-married individuals and were partly moderated by gender, age, country-level singlehood, and gender ratio. Our study provides insights into the characteristics of lifelong singles and has implications for understanding mental health and structures of social support in older individuals.

Even if the scene before our eyes remains static for some time, we might explore it differently compared with how we examine static images, which are commonly used in studies on visual attention. Here we show experimentally that the top-down expectation of changes in natural scenes causes clearly distinguishable gaze behavior for visually identical scenes. We present free-viewing eye-tracking data of 20 healthy adults on a new video dataset of natural scenes, each mapped for its potential for change (PfC) in independent ratings. Observers looking at frozen videos looked significantly more often at the parts of the scene with a high PfC compared with static images, with substantially higher interobserver coherence. This viewing difference peaked right before a potential movement onset. Established concepts like object animacy or salience alone could not explain this finding. Images thus conceal experience-based expectations that affect gaze behavior in the potentially dynamic real world.

Mental health and well-being tend to improve with age, and personality differences affect these trajectories. Although it is well established that dispositional traits, such as extraversion and neuroticism, relate to well-being, the incremental validity of other important personality constructs, such as narrative identity, remains unknown. Across 9 years, 157 late-midlife adults (M_age = 56.4 years, SD = 0.96) self-reported their well-being and symptoms of depression each year and wrote an annual narrative account describing their greatest life challenge (N_challenges = 1,211). The narrative accounts were content-coded for themes of agency and communion. Results showed that themes of agency and communion in narrative identity were significantly and uniquely associated with well-being and depression across time, over and above the effects of traits. The benefits of considering both narrative identity and dispositional personality traits as they jointly apply to mental health are discussed.

The aim of this research was to test an informational explanation of the effects observed in the affect misattribution procedure (AMP). According to this explanation, participants performing the AMP would simplify the task by asking whether the target is pleasant (yes vs. no) and would use the affective information provided by the prime to answer the question (positive = yes, negative = no). In line with this proposition, we observed in three preregistered experiments that slightly modifying the response options proposed in the task moderated the effect, which can be canceled (Experiment 1) and even reversed (Experiments 2 and 3). These results are consistent with the informational explanation and seem difficult to explain by the operation of misattribution processes.