Estimating the benefits of floodplain restoration to juvenile Chinook salmon in the upper San Francisco Estuary, United States, under future climate scenarios

Many river systems within the Central Valley of California have been disconnected from their floodplains, hypothesized to be partially responsible for declining Chinook salmon populations (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The primary floodplain of the system, Yolo By‐Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), offered an opportunity to examine whether improved connectivity between the floodplain and river could limit negative climate change effects on salmon populations. Specifically, the top of the floodplain (Fremont Weir) is being modified to provide Sacramento River Chinook salmon better access to floodplain rearing habitat. We estimated restoration effects on the Yolo By‐Pass flood regime now and under future climate scenarios using flow rating curves. Additionally, we used temperature and flow‐specific effects on Chinook salmon population dynamics within the Yolo By‐Pass and Sacramento River complex to describe how the restoration project and climate change may interact to affect juvenile Chinook salmon biomass production. Our results indicate that the Fremont Weir restoration project will extend the frequency, timing, and duration of Yolo By‐Pass flooding. Our production model indicates that the modification will result in greater salmon entrainment rates into the Yolo By‐Pass, where salmon growth rates, survival rates, and biomass production were higher when compared to the Sacramento River main stem. The project appears to benefit all regional runs of Chinook salmon, which should help support life history diversity. Our results suggest that the weir modification should benefit native fish from the Central Valley that use floodplain habitat and that these benefits may be resilient to challenges created by a changing climate.