尾号限行对减少中国空气污染的影响

IF 5.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS 中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102252
Yuqi Song
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了中国长期车牌尾号限行政策的长期效率,这一交通管制政策的部分目的是减少城市空气污染。研究对 2008 年至 2013 年期间交错实施该政策的九个城市进行了面板差分回归。结果表明,总体而言,这种驾驶限制政策并不能长期改善政策城市的空气污染状况。从数量上看,该政策对城市空气质量指数的影响接近零,在 95% 置信区间下限的估计值中仅降低了 3.9%,即每人每年仅获得 11.24 美元(70.62 元人民币)的福利收益,或人均 0.447 个生命年。利用时间回归非连续性和异质性分组分析进行的进一步分析表明,空气污染可能首先因政策而减少,但随后又会反弹,因为在没有同时实施汽车限购的城市,驾驶者购买第二辆汽车的行为会有所调整。这表明,需要将尾号限行政策与汽车限购或电动汽车推广结合起来,才能长期有效地减少空气污染。
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The effect of the end-number license plate driving restriction on reducing air pollution in China

This study investigates the long-term efficiency of the long-run end-number license plate driving restriction in China, a traffic control policy that is partially aimed at reducing urban air pollution. A difference-in-differences regression is performed on a panel including nine cities that implemented this policy in staggered manner between 2008 and 2013. The results show that overall, this driving restriction does not improve air pollution in policy cities over the long-term. Quantitatively, the city-level air quality index has close-zero statistically insignificant changes by the policy, reaching only 3.9% reduction by 95% confidence interval lower bound of the estimate, translating to welfare gains of only 11.24 USD (70.62 CNY) per person per year, or 0.447 life years per capita. Further analysis with regression discontinuity in time and heterogeneity subgroup analysis illustrates that air pollution may first decrease due to the policy but then bounce back because of the behavioral adaptations of drivers purchasing a second car in cities without simultaneous car purchase restrictions. This shows that need to combine the end-number license plate policy with car purchase restrictions or electric vehicle promotions to achieve effective air pollution reductions over the long-term.

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来源期刊
中国经济评论
中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.40%
发文量
380
期刊介绍: The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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