中美贸易战的冲击与就业市场:下游萎缩与上游就业

IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102057
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们以 2018 年中美贸易战为准自然实验,研究了下游萎缩如何影响上游就业。利用差分法(DID),我们揭示了下游萎缩对上游企业就业的负面影响。我们的机制分析表明,贸易战会增加下游企业的税负、库存和应付账款,同时减少其就业。下游企业的萎缩通过供应链传导限制了上游企业的投资和经营规模,从而减少了上游企业的就业。此外,我们的发现对特定类型的企业更为明显,如非国有企业、跨行业经营的企业等。我们的研究为企业建立弹性供应链网络以更好地应对潜在负面冲击提供了重要参考。
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The Shock of US-China trade war and the job Market: Downstream shrinkage and upstream employment

Using the 2018 US-China trade war as a quasi-natural experiment, we investigate how downstream shrinkage affects upstream employment. Utilizing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, we reveal a negative effect of downstream shrinkage on upstream firm employment. Our mechanism analysis indicates that trade wars increase the tax burden, inventories, and accounts payable for downstream firms while reducing their employment. This shrinkage of downstream firms limits the scale of investment and operations for upstream firms through supply chain transmission, thereby decreasing employment of upstream firms. Moreover, our finding is more pronounced for specific types of firms, such as non-state-owned firms, firms operating across multiple industries. Our study provides an essential reference for firms in building resilient supply chain networks to better cope with potential negative shocks.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
10.00%
发文量
142
期刊介绍: International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.
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