{"title":"气候变化背景下宫本氏包虫病的全球风险动态","authors":"Tian Tang, Hong-Han Ge, Tian Ma, Meng-meng Hao, Shuai Chen, Chen-Long Lv, Yun-Bo Qiu, Yan-He Wang, Yao Tian, Jin-Jin Chen, Shuai Yuan, Qian Wang, Dong Jiang, Fang-Yu Ding, Wei Liu, Li-Qun Fang","doi":"10.1111/1462-2920.70000","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of <i>Borrelia miyamotoi</i> on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of <i>Ixodes</i> ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for <i>B. miyamotoi</i>, including <i>Ixodes persulcatus</i>, <i>Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus</i> and <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from <i>I. scapularis</i>, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in <i>B. miyamotoi</i> and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on <i>B. miyamotoi</i> distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.</p>","PeriodicalId":11898,"journal":{"name":"Environmental microbiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1462-2920.70000","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change\",\"authors\":\"Tian Tang, Hong-Han Ge, Tian Ma, Meng-meng Hao, Shuai Chen, Chen-Long Lv, Yun-Bo Qiu, Yan-He Wang, Yao Tian, Jin-Jin Chen, Shuai Yuan, Qian Wang, Dong Jiang, Fang-Yu Ding, Wei Liu, Li-Qun Fang\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1462-2920.70000\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The impact of <i>Borrelia miyamotoi</i> on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of <i>Ixodes</i> ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for <i>B. miyamotoi</i>, including <i>Ixodes persulcatus</i>, <i>Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus</i> and <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from <i>I. scapularis</i>, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in <i>B. miyamotoi</i> and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of <i>B. miyamotoi</i> infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on <i>B. miyamotoi</i> distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11898,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental microbiology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1462-2920.70000\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental microbiology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.70000\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MICROBIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental microbiology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.70000","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在全球气候变化的背景下,宫本鲍尔森氏菌对人类健康的影响仍然模糊不清,而宫本鲍尔森氏菌的地理分布不断扩大,蜱虫数量不断增加。我们采用多种模型来评估全球气候变化在不同情况下对全球宫本氏包虫病风险的影响。考虑到不同时期的多种共同社会经济路径情景,我们使用增强回归树模型预测了四种主要病媒蜱类(包括长尾蜱、蓖麻蜱、太平洋蜱和胛蜱)的宫本蝇栖息地适宜性指数。建模分析表明,除鳞蜱外,未来全球变暖将导致其他三种媒介蜱物种向北迁移,适宜栖息地逐渐减少。随机森林模型表明,B. miyamotoi 及其主要蜱虫物种将发生一致的变化,潜在风险区域将缩小并向北转移,尤其是在美国东部、欧洲东北部和北部以及亚洲东北部。这些发现突出表明,在预计的潜在风险区域内,迫切需要加强对主要病媒蜱种中宫本氏杆菌感染的主动监测。气候变化对 B. miyamotoi 分布的影响可能会对有关蜱传病原体的公共卫生决策产生重大影响。
Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change
The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from I. scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Microbiology provides a high profile vehicle for publication of the most innovative, original and rigorous research in the field. The scope of the Journal encompasses the diversity of current research on microbial processes in the environment, microbial communities, interactions and evolution and includes, but is not limited to, the following:
the structure, activities and communal behaviour of microbial communities
microbial community genetics and evolutionary processes
microbial symbioses, microbial interactions and interactions with plants, animals and abiotic factors
microbes in the tree of life, microbial diversification and evolution
population biology and clonal structure
microbial metabolic and structural diversity
microbial physiology, growth and survival
microbes and surfaces, adhesion and biofouling
responses to environmental signals and stress factors
modelling and theory development
pollution microbiology
extremophiles and life in extreme and unusual little-explored habitats
element cycles and biogeochemical processes, primary and secondary production
microbes in a changing world, microbially-influenced global changes
evolution and diversity of archaeal and bacterial viruses
new technological developments in microbial ecology and evolution, in particular for the study of activities of microbial communities, non-culturable microorganisms and emerging pathogens