A Predictive Nomogram for the Occurrence of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease After Sleeve Gastrectomy: A Study Based on Preoperative HERM.

Purpose: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common complication after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG); This study aimed to construct a model that can predict the incidence of GERD after LSG by exploring the correlation between the results of high-resolution esophageal manometry (HREM) and the incidence of GERD after LSG.

Patients and methods: We collected the clinical data of patients who had undergone HREM before bariatric surgery from September 2013 to September 2019 at the bariatric center of our hospital. The Gerd-Q scores during the postoperative follow-up were collected to determine the incidence of GERD. A logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the correlation of the HREM results and general clinical data with the incidence of GERD after LSG.

Results: The percentage of synchronous contractions, lower esophageal sphincter (LES) resting pressure, and history of smoking were correlated with the development of GERD after LSG, with the history of smoking and percentage of synchronous contractions as risk factors and LES resting pressure as a protective factor. The training set showed an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the nomogram model of 0.847. The validation set showed an AUC of 0.761. The decision and clinical impact curves showed a high clinical value for the prediction model.

Conclusion: The HREM results correlated with the development of GERD after LSG, with the percentage of synchronous contractions and LES resting pressure showing predictive value. Combined with the history of smoking, the predictive model showed a high confidence and clinical value.