Simulation and projection of photovoltaic energy potential over a tropical region using CMIP6 models

The study examines the potential impact of climate change on photovoltaic energy (PV) in Nigeria. Solar radiation and temperature datasets from 13 regional climate models (CMIP6) for 2015–2099 were used to evaluate the photovoltaic energy under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for near-future (2023–2053), mid-future (2054–2084), and far-future (2084–2099) periods. The precision of the models for the simulation of PV energy was validated with MERRA-2 reference data using the compromise programming index (CPI). Models with the lowest CPI were selected for regional PV energy projections. The findings showed varying numbers of increase and decrease projected changes across the four regions under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the near, mid and far future timescales. Specifically, in the SSP245 scenario, the model with lowest CPI was the CMCC-CESM2 model, it projected a decrease in PV energy in the Sahel (−2.30), an increase in the Guinea Savannah (+2.80), the Rainforest (+1.20) and the coastal region (+4.80) for the far future period (2085–2099). In the SSP585 scenario, the AWI-CM-1.1-MR model projected a decrease in the Sahel region (−4.60), while the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model projected an increase in the Guinea Savannah region (+1.80), and the ACCESS-CM2 model projected an increase in the Rainforest (+10.20) and Coastal regions (+13.20) for the far-future. All values in the parentheses are measured in watts-hour per square-meters. The projected changes in PV energy revealed the need for a regional-specific approach to the planning and implementation of energy transition mix in Nigeria.