Cooperation under Asymmetry? The Future of US-China Nuclear Relations

Warning signs that nuclear weapons could become a key component of US-China competition have appeared in the last two years, after those weapons have remained firmly in the background of the relationship for decades. On October 1, 2019, China showcased a series of sophisticated nuclear missiles as the finale to its military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. In April 2020, the United States insisted on Chinese participation in trilateral negotiations with Russia about a future nuclear arms control agreement. Chinese officials flatly refused to participate. In May 2020, an op-ed by the editor of theGlobal Times, a Chinese tabloid known for its hardline, nationalistic editorial line, called for China to increase its arsenal size. US officials seized on the op-ed as evidence that China was planning a sprint to nuclear parity with the United States and Russia. In China, the op-ed sparked public debate and a vocal defense of the adequacy of China’s small arsenal by a recently retired Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) nuclear researcher.