Modelling the association between weather and short-term demand for children’s intensive care transport services during winter in the South East of England

Data from a paediatric intensive care transport service based in the South East of England between 2006 and 2018 are studied using generalised additive models to investigate the effects of extreme weather on demand in winter. Noticeable increases in daily demand for the service are uncovered after periods of extreme weather, and can be partitioned into two characteristically different phenomena, most pronounced at 2 days and 7 days after a period of particularly low temperature combined with either high or low humidity. The effect is more visible when virus prevalence is accounted for, showing that demand can increase by as much as 30% 7 days after a period of low temperature and low humidity, and 20% 2 days after a period of low temperature and high humidity.