遏制中国对美国强制性经济策略的适应能力

IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Washington Quarterly Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI:10.1080/0163660X.2023.2188828
Aaron Arnold
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引用次数: 1

摘要

自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、西方随后以协调一致的金融和经济制裁作为回应以来,已经过去了一年。然而,华盛顿不仅以前所未有的速度利用自己的制裁机制,而且还与合作伙伴和盟友进行协调,这让莫斯科措手不及。针对俄罗斯的制裁机制展开得如此之快、范围如此之广,同样令北京方面感到不安。那么,中国能从美国主导的对俄制裁中学到什么教训呢?中国能否切实加强其金融和经济体系,以应对可能出现的大规模、协调一致的制裁?就北京而言,它敏锐地意识到其金融体系和主要经济部门仍然容易受到美国制裁的影响——无论是直接制裁还是通过二次制裁。部分是为了减轻美国的制裁,中国已经开始了一项雄心勃勃的长期战略,以进一步使其货币人民币国际化,以及实施法律和监管改革,这些改革可能会威胁甚至破坏华盛顿未来实施制裁的能力,比如如果中国入侵台湾。那么,华盛顿怎样才能避开中国“不受制裁”的经济努力呢?当然,最重要的行动之一是维持强势美元。虽然美国的货币政策不在本文的讨论范围之内,但重要的是要认识到一个现实,即对美元的强烈偏好
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Curbing China’s Resilience to US Coercive Economic Statecraft
It has been a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s subsequent response with coordinated financial and economic sanctions. It was not only Moscow, however, that was caught off-guard by Washington’s unprecedented speed at leveraging not only its own sanctions regime, but also coordinating with its partners and allies. Beijing, too, was equally unnerved by how quickly and how extensively the sanctions regime against Russia unfolded. What lessons, then, might China take away from US-led sanctions against Russia? Can China feasibly fortify its financial and economic system against the potential for a largescale, coordinated sanctions effort? For its part, Beijing is keenly aware that its financial system and major sectors of its economy remain vulnerable to US sanctions—either directly or through secondary sanctions. Partially to mitigate against US sanctions, China has embarked on an ambitious long-term strategy to further internationalize its currency—the renminbi, or “RMB”—as well as to implement legal and regulatory reforms that could threaten or even undermine Washington’s ability to impose sanctions at a future point, such as if China invades Taiwan. How, then, can Washington skirt China’s efforts to “sanctions-proof” its economy? To be sure, one of the most consequential actions is to maintain a strong US dollar. While US monetary policy is outside the scope of this article, it is important to recognize the reality that a strong preference for the
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
5.90%
发文量
20
期刊介绍: The Washington Quarterly (TWQ) is a journal of global affairs that analyzes strategic security challenges, changes, and their public policy implications. TWQ is published out of one of the world"s preeminent international policy institutions, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and addresses topics such as: •The U.S. role in the world •Emerging great powers: Europe, China, Russia, India, and Japan •Regional issues and flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East and Asia •Weapons of mass destruction proliferation and missile defenses •Global perspectives to reduce terrorism Contributors are drawn from outside as well as inside the United States and reflect diverse political, regional, and professional perspectives.
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