The Nuclear Proliferation Landscape: Is Past Prologue?

The Biden administration has a full plate when it comes to nuclear challenges. As of this writing, Iran’s nuclear program is expanding, and the amount of time Tehran would need to produce enough material for a bomb is shrinking. Even if a diplomatic solution can be found, Iran is likely to retain a latent capability to build nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future. North Korea’s qualitative and quantitative improvements to its nuclear arsenal— including missiles that can reach the United States—mean that it can no longer be considered a minor nuclear nuisance. Evidence suggests that the administration will focus closely on these threats. And it would be right to do so. But President Biden and his team should also look beyond the immediate horizon. If future proliferation threats look like the past 30 years—that is, socalled “rogue” states such as Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria, and Iran—then the United States should feel reasonably confident about its ability to keep the spread of nuclear weapons contained. Aside from Iran, there are few true US adversaries that are likely to mount a new proliferation challenge. The regimes in Libya and Iraq that pursued nuclear weapons are gone, and those two countries as well as Syria are consumed with internal strife that makes reconstitution of a nuclear weapons program unlikely. Moreover, Washington has a wealth of experience and a refined and tested toolkit for managing such threats.