America's Role in a Post-American Middle East

After decades of wars in the Middle East, growing great power competition, and changing priorities at home, there is much uncertainty about America’s place in the world today. Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine has further shaken up debates over America’s global priorities and purpose, including in the Middle East. On one hand, a consensus has emerged across the American political spectrum that after costly investments with little discernable payoff, the United States should do less in the Middle East and more to confront a rising China. President Obama aspired to “pivot to Asia” but new terrorism threats like the Islamic State sidetracked him along the way. Now, by some accounts, Biden is finally completing the pivot, even if the Ukraine war is shifting US attention back to Europe and Russia. On the other hand, tens of thousands of US forces remain in the Middle East, increasingly vulnerable to attacks by Iran and Iranianaligned nonstate actors. All the while, American military strikes against Iranian-aligned groups and major US arms sales to regional partners continue apace. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 added to this policy confusion. Was Afghanistan the opening salvo foreshadowing a reduced American presence in the Middle East, to be followed by more withdrawals as advocated by a “restraint” camp in Washington? Or was it a unique set of circumstances, linked to Biden’s previous convictions and assessments of the