2011年日本东北大地震的十年教训

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2021-04-23 DOI:10.1029/2020RG000713
N. Uchida, R. Bürgmann
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引用次数: 30

摘要

2011年发生的9.0级日本东北大地震是世界上记录最多的地震之一。在这一毁灭性事件发生后,重要的是要从完整的记录中学习。我们描述了地震发生前对大逆冲地震发生过程的认识状况,以及地震发生后十年来对大逆冲地震的认识。在2011年之前,从大地测量学、地质学、地震学、地貌学和古地震学等方面进行了大量研究,表明日本东北部有可能发生大逆冲地震,但每个领域的结果都不足以对危险性进行共识评估。在地震发生前,人们已经认识到板间耦合的瞬态松开和地震活动性的增加,但没有引起警报。自主震以来,后续研究(1)记录了破裂发生在一个具有较大板间滑动亏损的地区,(2)建立了较大的近海沟同震滑动,(3)检查了与同震滑动相关的结构异常和断裂带物质,(4)阐明了M ~ 9地震的历史和古地震复发,(5)确定了各种可能的前兆。研究还揭示了同震破裂、余震、慢震和地震余震的非均匀分布,以及持久的粘弹性反应,这些共同构成了复杂的大逆冲地震旋回。鉴于这些科学进步,现在可以更准确地确定即将发生的大地震的地震危险性,尽管我们不相信这样的事件可以有把握地预测出来。
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A Decade of Lessons Learned from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake is one of the world's best-recorded ruptures. In the aftermath of this devastating event, it is important to learn from the complete record. We describe the state of knowledge of the megathrust earthquake generation process before the earthquake, and what has been learned in the decade since the historic event. Prior to 2011, there were a number of studies suggesting the potential of a great megathrust earthquake in NE Japan from geodesy, geology, seismology, geomorphology, and paleoseismology, but results from each field were not enough to enable a consensus assessment of the hazard. A transient unfastening of interplate coupling and increased seismicity were recognized before the earthquake, but did not lead to alerts. Since the mainshock, follow-up studies have (1) documented that the rupture occurred in an area with a large interplate slip deficit, (2) established large near-trench coseismic slip, (3) examined structural anomalies and fault-zone materials correlated with the coseismic slip, (4) clarified the historical and paleoseismic recurrence of M∼9 earthquakes, and (5) identified various kinds of possible precursors. The studies have also illuminated the heterogeneous distribution of coseismic rupture, aftershocks, slow earthquakes and aseismic afterslip, and the enduring viscoelastic response, which together make up the complex megathrust earthquake cycle. Given these scientific advances, the enhanced seismic hazard of an impending great earthquake can now be more accurately established, although we do not believe such an event could be predicted with confidence.

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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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