汇率对巴基斯坦的贸易平衡有影响吗?基于j曲线的证据

Aamir Khan, Muhammad Arshad Khan, A. Salman
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究的目的是在j曲线现象的背景下,找出1982-2016年期间汇率对巴基斯坦贸易平衡的影响关系。我们采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法进行协整。为了研究研究的短期动态,我们估计了一个误差修正模型。单位根结果提供了I(0)和I(1)个变量的混合。诊断试验的结果表明,估计模型中没有计量经济学问题。CUSUM和CUSUM的平方检验证实了估计模型的稳定性。我们总结了估计结果如下:首先,我们发现了变量之间协整的证据。第二,长期结果显示REER对巴基斯坦贸易平衡的影响显著。第三,我们在巴基斯坦的案例中发现了j曲线的证据。
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IS EXCHANGE RATE EFFECT TRADE BALANCE IN PAKISTAN? EVIDENCE BASED ON J- CURVE
This study aims to find out the relationship of how exchange rate effect the balance of trade in Pakistan over the period 1982-2016 within the context of J-curve phenomenon. We employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. To investigate the short run dynamics of the study, we have estimated an error correction model. The unit root results provide a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables. The results of diagnostic tests indicate no econometric problem in the estimated model. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squared test confirms the stability of the estimated model. We summarize the estimated results as follow: first, we found an evidence of cointegration among the variables. Second, the long run results shows significant effect of REER on trade balance in Pakistan. Third, we found an evidence of J-curve in case of Pakistan.
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