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An Error in the Theory of Seigniorage 铸币税理论中的一个错误
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.005
Petr Mach
The article reveals an error in the theory of seigniorage or government revenue from printing money. Friedman, Cagan, Mankiw, and other economists have repeated the definition of seigniorage as the monetary base multiplied by the rate of inflation (or by the growth in the monetary base). This definition, however, contains a logical error in the formula of seigniorage, confusing the growth rate with the growth rate divided by the growth rate plus one. This often-repeated confusion is consequently common in modern economics textbooks. These many authors have omitted Keynes who – almost one hundred years ago – rightly understood seigniorage to be the monetary base multiplied by the rate of money growth divided by the rate of money growth plus one. This paper presents an unambiguous definition and formula of seigniorage and offers a graphical illustration of seigniorage as a function of monetary growth which corresponds to Keynes’s approach. It is shown that such a graph is an analogy to the Laffer curve in explicit taxation.
这篇文章揭示了铸币税或政府印钞收入理论中的一个错误。弗里德曼、凯根、曼昆和其他经济学家重复了铸币税的定义,即货币基础乘以通货膨胀率(或货币基础的增长率)。然而,这个定义在铸币税公式中包含一个逻辑错误,将增长率与增长率除以增长率加1混淆。因此,这种经常重复的混淆在现代经济学教科书中很常见。这些作者都忽略了凯恩斯,他在近100年前就正确地理解铸币税等于基础货币乘以货币增长率除以货币增长率加1。本文提出了铸币税的明确定义和公式,并提供了铸币税作为货币增长函数的图形说明,这与凯恩斯的方法相对应。结果表明,这种曲线图类似于显性税收中的拉弗曲线。
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引用次数: 0
Findings from the first wave of Covid-19 on the different impacts of lockdown on public health and economic growth 第一波新冠肺炎疫情对封锁对公共卫生和经济增长的不同影响的研究结果
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.002
Bilal Kargı, Mario Coccia, Bekir Cihan Uçkaç
This paper examines the impact of different durations of national lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on the public health and economic conditions of nations. Results indicate that a) countries with shorter lockdown periods, approximately 15 days, experience a higher variation of confirmed cases/population (%) compared to countries with longer lockdowns, lasting for over one month; b) countries with shorter lockdown periods experience lower average fatality rates compared to countries with longer lockdown periods, while the variation in fatality rates indicates that countries with longer periods of lockdown achieved a more substantial reduction in fatality rates. Nevertheless, the findings of the study indicate that while longer durations of national lockdowns, implemented as a government response to the COVID-19 pandemic, appear to produce somewhat uncertain outcomes in terms of public health, they exhibit a more substantial adverse effect on a country’s economic growth, resulting in a contraction in gross domestic product growth. Extracting key lessons from this study can prove invaluable in crafting effective public responses for future COVID-19 waves and epidemics that resemble the characteristics of COVID-19.
本文考察了在第一波新冠肺炎大流行期间,不同国家封锁措施的持续时间对各国公共卫生和经济状况的影响。结果表明,a)封锁期较短(约15天)的国家确诊病例/人口(%)的变化高于封锁期较长(超过一个月)的国家;B)与封城期较长的国家相比,封城期较短的国家的平均死亡率较低,而死亡率的差异表明,封城期较长的国家的死亡率下降幅度更大。然而,该研究的结果表明,虽然政府为应对COVID-19大流行而实施的更长时间的国家封锁在公共卫生方面似乎产生了一些不确定的结果,但它们对一个国家的经济增长表现出更大的不利影响,导致国内生产总值增长收缩。从这项研究中汲取关键经验教训,对于制定有效的公众应对措施,以应对未来的COVID-19浪潮和类似COVID-19特征的流行病,将是非常宝贵的。
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引用次数: 0
The Treynor Ratio as a Risk-adjusted Return of Croatian Listed Firms 克罗地亚上市公司风险调整收益的Treynor比率
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.006
Tomislava Pavic Kramaric, Marko Miletic, Petar Pepur
Motivated by the importance of determinants of firm performance, especially in terms of risk-adjusted performance that considers underlying risks, this paper explores the effects of firm-specific determinants on risk-adjusted returns such as the Treynor ratio. Specifically, the authors explore whether firm size, capital expenditures, capital intensity, equity ratio, leverage, profitability, listing age, and liquidity affect the performance of Croatian non-financial listed companies that form the CROBEXplus equity index in the period 2014 – 2021. Utilizing dynamic panel analysis, several key deterministic factors of risk-adjusted performance are identified including firm size, capital intensity, equity ratio, leverage, profitability, and listing age. In other words, larger firms tend to experience greater risk adjusted returns than their smaller counterparts as well as firms with higher equity ratios, i.e. those not overly indebted. Results also show that capital intensity, which is viewed as a source of entry barrier, is positively related to risk adjusted-performance which is also true for profitability. Furthermore, companies that have a longer presence in the market in terms of being listed on the stock exchange document enhanced risk-adjusted returns. These findings have significant policy and practical implications.
考虑到企业绩效决定因素的重要性,尤其是考虑潜在风险的风险调整绩效,本文探讨了企业特定决定因素对风险调整收益的影响,如特雷纳比率。具体而言,作者探讨了2014年至2021年期间,公司规模、资本支出、资本强度、股权比率、杠杆率、盈利能力、上市年龄和流动性是否影响CROBEXplus股票指数组成的克罗地亚非金融上市公司的业绩。利用动态面板分析,确定了风险调整绩效的几个关键决定性因素,包括公司规模、资本强度、股权比率、杠杆率、盈利能力和上市时间。换句话说,规模较大的公司往往比规模较小的公司以及股本比率较高的公司(即没有过度负债的公司)获得更高的风险调整回报。结果还表明,资本密集度(被视为进入壁垒的来源)与风险调整后的绩效呈正相关,这对盈利能力也是如此。此外,在证券交易所上市的公司在市场上存在的时间越长,风险调整后的回报就越高。这些发现具有重要的政策和实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Is the Eurozone an Optimum Currency Area? 欧元区是最优货币区吗?
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.004
Marek Louzek
The objective of this paper is to find out the past, the present and the future of the euro. The first part presents the euro as an edifying currency experiment. The second part analyses the economic performance of the euro area. The third part points out the internal conflicts inside the eurozone. The fourth part explains why the eurozone is not an optimum currency area. The fifth part outlines the controversy around the purchase of bonds by the ECB. The sixth part poses the question whether it is still possible to save the euro. The eurozone is not an optimum currency area. In theory, it could become one, provided that high mobility of labour is achieved, wages are flexible downwards, asymmetrical shocks do not occur and there is a stable system of national finances, supplemented by an effective system of fiscal compensations. Since these conditions are not met, the euro has become a trap for the member states. The euro has not had the effect of converging economic development in the eurozone; quite the opposite, it has had a diverging effect.
本文的目的是找出欧元的过去,现在和未来。第一部分介绍了欧元作为一种具有启发性的货币实验。第二部分分析了欧元区的经济表现。第三部分指出了欧元区内部的矛盾。第四部分解释了欧元区为何不是最优货币区。第五部分概述了围绕欧洲央行购买债券的争议。第六部分提出了是否仍有可能拯救欧元的问题。欧元区并非最佳货币区。从理论上讲,只要实现劳动力的高度流动性,工资可向下灵活调整,不发生不对称冲击,并且有一个稳定的国家财政体系,辅以有效的财政补偿体系,它就有可能成为一个国家。由于这些条件没有得到满足,欧元就成了成员国的陷阱。欧元没有起到欧元区经济发展趋同的效果;恰恰相反,它产生了分化效应。
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引用次数: 0
Nexus Between Foreign Direct Investment and Employment in Manufacturing and Services Sectors in Tunisia: An ARDL Approach 突尼斯制造业和服务业外国直接投资与就业之间的关系:ARDL方法
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.001
Mouldi Ben Amor
This study investigated both the cointegration and the causal nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and employment in the manufacturing and services sectors in Tunisia by employing the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings confirm a long-run relationship among the examined variables. Causality results indicated both short-run and long-run bidirectional causality between FDI and employment in the services sectors as well as between employment in the manufacturing and the services sectors. However, there is a unidirectional causality between FDI and employment in manufacturing running from FDI to employment in Manufacturing. These results are of particular interest and offer new perspectives and insight for new policies toward promoting and diversifying foreign investment as a critical contributor to the manufacturing sector's productive capacity and by extension to its employment level.
本研究通过采用增强自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法,调查了突尼斯制造业和服务业外国直接投资(FDI)与就业之间的协整和因果关系。我们的发现证实了所研究变量之间的长期关系。因果关系结果表明,FDI与服务业就业之间以及制造业和服务业就业之间存在短期和长期双向因果关系。然而,FDI与制造业就业之间存在单向因果关系,从FDI到制造业就业。这些结果特别令人感兴趣,并为促进外国投资和使其多样化的新政策提供了新的观点和见解,因为外国投资是制造业生产能力的关键因素,并延伸到其就业水平。
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引用次数: 0
Public funding in R&D and R&D outcome sustainable development: Analysis of Member States EU 公共研发资助与研发成果可持续发展:欧盟成员国分析
Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.52950/es.2023.12.2.003
Lucie Kurekova, Klara Cermakova, Eduard Hromada, Bozena Kaderabkova
This paper examines the relationship between public funding in research and development (R&D) and the sustainable development outcomes within the European Union (EU) member states from 2000 to 2022. It investigates the allocation and effectiveness of public funding towards R&D in sustainable technologies and its alignment with the EU's strategic growth and sustainability goals. Through a mixed-method approach, including descriptive analysis, econometric modelling, and a review of pa-tents and scientific publications, the study addresses three core research questions: the extent of public R&D funding, the R&D outcomes in sustainable development, and the efficacy of recent EU public research funding in fostering innovation in sustainable technologies. The analysis reveals that while there is a positive correlation between targeted public expenditures and R&D outcomes, disparities exist among member states in terms of investment levels and innovation outputs. The paper also dis-cusses the implications of these findings in the context of the EU's broader sustainability objectives, including the European Green Deal, and suggests pathways for future research to enhance the impact of public R&D funding on sustainable development.
本文考察了2000年至2022年欧盟成员国研究与开发(R&D)公共资金与可持续发展成果之间的关系。它调查了公共资金在可持续技术研发方面的分配和有效性,以及它与欧盟战略增长和可持续发展目标的一致性。通过混合方法,包括描述性分析、计量经济模型以及对专利和科学出版物的回顾,该研究解决了三个核心研究问题:公共研发资助的程度、可持续发展中的研发成果,以及最近欧盟公共研究资助在促进可持续技术创新方面的效力。分析表明,虽然有针对性的公共支出与研发成果之间存在正相关关系,但成员国之间在投资水平和创新产出方面存在差异。本文还讨论了这些发现在欧盟更广泛的可持续发展目标(包括欧洲绿色协议)背景下的含义,并提出了未来研究的途径,以增强公共研发资金对可持续发展的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Twin Deficits Revisited: The Role of Fiscal Institutions in Pakistan 重新审视双赤字:巴基斯坦财政机构的作用
IF 2.4 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v2i1.a6
Sana Waheed, M. Akram
The economy of Pakistan is facing the problem of the persistent current account and the budget deficit in the past many years. This study addresses the important question of whether the budget deficit affects the current account components of the balance of payments, creating imbalances therein as well. The main objective of this research is to investigate the association between the budget and the current account deficit in Pakistan. The study has taken data from the period 1980-2021. Johansen’s cointegration approach has been applied to find the long-run association and the results imply a positive and considerable long-run association between budget deficit and current account deficit. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) specifies the convergence or deviation of the market in the short run to the long run. The finding shows that there is a long-run connection between the budget and the current account deficit. The study suggests that government should focus on a sound budgeting policy and focus to make exports more competitive in the foreign market.
巴基斯坦经济在过去的许多年里一直面临着经常账户和预算赤字的问题。这项研究解决了一个重要的问题,即预算赤字是否影响国际收支的经常账户组成部分,从而也造成了其中的不平衡。本研究的主要目的是调查巴基斯坦预算和经常账户赤字之间的关系。该研究收集了1980年至2021年期间的数据。约翰森的协整方法已被应用于寻找长期关联,结果表明预算赤字和经常账户赤字之间存在积极和可观的长期关联。矢量误差修正模型(VECM)规定了市场在短期内对长期的趋同或偏离。这一发现表明,预算与经常账户赤字之间存在长期联系。该研究建议,政府应专注于健全的预算政策,并专注于提高出口在国外市场上的竞争力。
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引用次数: 0
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Comprehensive Guide to Enhancing Economic and National Security, Stability, and Sustainability 《中巴经济走廊:加强经济和国家安全、稳定和可持续性的综合指南》
IF 2.4 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v2i1.a2
Jana Awez, Tayyaba Khan, Areeba Falak
A strong economy is the backbone of a strong nation. Pakistan has experienced security challenges since the beginning that has shifted its attention to defense, which diverted its focus from economic stability. And from the standpoint of independence, Pakistan has territorial disputes with neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and India. This has made it difficult for the country to maintain strong trade relations with them and has hindered diplomatic relations with Pakistan. Programs like China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have provided the country with an opportunity to improve its economic conditions. The CPEC can be a game changer for Pakistan. It is a project of regional connectivity, a part of China's Belt and Road initiative (BRI) This would assist not just Pakistan but also Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asian countries and in some way Middle Eastern states. Under this program, these countries will have improved roads, railways, air transportation, and the frequent and free exchange of goods so that they will have open borders like European countries as a result of which Pakistan will have less security issues and more economic opportunities. Pakistan's current budget (2022-23) allocates 58 percent of its budget to loan repayment and defense, the remaining 42%(News, 2022) is very less for making the country stable or sustainable. The CPEC is a long-term program that will help Pakistan achieve economic and national stability and sustainability. The CPEC model is a win scenario that will result in a linked and integrated area that shares harmony and growth.
强大的经济是强大国家的支柱。巴基斯坦从一开始就经历了安全挑战,将注意力从经济稳定转移到国防上。从独立的角度来看,巴基斯坦与阿富汗和印度等邻国存在领土争端。这使得该国难以与他们保持牢固的贸易关系,并阻碍了与巴基斯坦的外交关系。中巴经济走廊(CPEC)等项目为该国提供了改善经济状况的机会。中巴经济走廊可以改变巴基斯坦的游戏规则。这是一个区域互联互通项目,是中国“一带一路”倡议的一部分。这不仅会帮助巴基斯坦,还会帮助伊朗、阿富汗、中亚国家,在某种程度上也会帮助中东国家。根据这一计划,这些国家将改善公路、铁路、航空运输,并能频繁和自由地交换货物,使它们像欧洲国家一样拥有开放的边界,从而使巴基斯坦面临的安全问题减少,并获得更多的经济机会。巴基斯坦目前的预算(2022-23)将其预算的58%用于偿还贷款和国防,剩余的42%(新闻,2022)用于维持国家稳定或可持续发展的预算非常少。中巴经济走廊是一个长期项目,将帮助巴基斯坦实现经济和国家稳定与可持续发展。中巴经济走廊模式是一个双赢的局面,将导致一个相互联系和融合的地区,共享和谐和增长。
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引用次数: 0
Job Search, Spatial Constraints, and Unemployment Duration: An Empirical Analysis of the Cameroonian Case 求职、空间约束与失业持续时间:喀麦隆案例的实证分析
IF 2.4 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v2i1.a4
Jean Bernard Awono Mono, M. Ngadena, Jean Cedric Oyono, Alice Brondinne Singui Ndombi, Awah Manga Armel
The individual transition from unemployment to employment is conditioned by various elements. If some of them concern directly the individual characteristics of workers, while others implicate indeed their environment when searching for a job. The residential location, housing status, and high travel distances to each labor market area are factors that can influence the exit rate of unemployment. This paper aims to integrate, in a job search model with endogenous intensity, the spatial horizon of prospecting. This horizon is introduced through the prospecting distance, which influences both the arrival rate of offers and the search costs. The equilibrium properties of the model lead to an indeterminate effect of the prospecting distance on the unemployment duration. The micro econometric estimation of the structural model allows us to deal with this ambiguity. The method adopted takes into account not only the selection rule on access to employment but also the endogeneity of the choice of spatial mobility. Results highlight that the exit from unemployment is shorter as the prospecting distance increases, but the increase in this prospecting distance does not lead to a decrease in the reserve wage.
个人从失业到就业的转变受到各种因素的制约。如果其中一些直接与工人的个人特征有关,而另一些则在找工作时确实与他们的环境有关。居住地点、住房状况和到每个劳动力市场区域的距离都是影响失业退出率的因素。本文的目的是在一个具有内生强度的求职模型中,整合寻找的空间视界。这个视界是通过探矿距离引入的,它既影响出价到达率,也影响搜索成本。该模型的均衡性导致了找矿距离对失业持续时间的影响不确定。结构模型的微观计量经济学估计使我们能够处理这种模糊性。所采用的方法不仅考虑了就业选择规则,而且考虑了空间流动性选择的内生性。结果表明,随着找矿距离的增加,失业退出时间变短,但找矿距离的增加并不会导致储备工资的减少。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking the Secret to Business Success: Analysing the Impact of Personnel Knowledge through Structural Equation Model 揭开企业成功的秘密:用结构方程模型分析人员知识的影响
IF 2.4 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v2i1.a3
A. Hameed, T. Ali
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the perceptions of business managers in the furniture sector regarding the relationship between business success and personnel knowledge. To achieve this goal, the study will use a quantities research approach to collect data from business managers working in different furniture sector in District Chiniot, Lahore, and Gujrat. The study used a measurement technique called Likert scale and included a variable that cannot be directly observed, called a latent variable that’s why used statistical model called Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). According to the findings of the study, certain factors have a significant impact on both personnel knowledge and business success. Specifically, the results indicated that management practices related to safety regulations, regulation laws, motivation of personnel, total quality management, product certification, and competitive positioning are highly correlated with personnel knowledge. This suggests that when these management practices are implemented effectively, employees are more likely to have the knowledge and skills necessary to perform their job duties efficiently, which can ultimately contribute to the success of the business. On the other hand, the study also found that factors such as new product development, sales abilities, total quality management, competitive positioning, and product pricing are highly associated with changes in business success. This means that when business focus on improving these areas, they are more likely to see positive changes in their overall success and performance. To begin an effort focused on enhancing skills, it is essential to first concentrate on owners by offering them excellent training services. These services should produce concrete improvements in productivity and illustrate the significance of skill improvement.
本文的目的是调查企业经理在家具行业关于企业成功和人员知识之间的关系的看法。为了实现这一目标,本研究将采用数量研究方法,从奇尼奥特区、拉合尔区和古吉拉特邦不同家具行业的业务经理那里收集数据。该研究使用了一种名为李克特量表的测量技术,并包括一个不能直接观察到的变量,称为潜在变量,这就是为什么使用称为结构方程模型(SEM)的统计模型。根据研究结果,某些因素对人员知识和企业成功都有显著影响。具体而言,研究结果表明,安全法规、法规法规、人员激励、全面质量管理、产品认证和竞争定位等相关管理实践与人员知识高度相关。这表明,当这些管理实践得到有效实施时,员工更有可能拥有有效履行工作职责所需的知识和技能,这最终有助于企业的成功。另一方面,研究还发现,新产品开发、销售能力、全面质量管理、竞争定位和产品定价等因素与商业成功的变化高度相关。这意味着,当企业专注于改善这些领域时,他们更有可能在整体成功和绩效中看到积极的变化。要开始一项专注于提高技能的工作,首先必须把重点放在业主身上,为他们提供优质的培训服务。这些服务应在生产力方面产生具体的改进,并说明技术改进的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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