定期租船还是航次租船?航运市场的市场效率评价

IF 0.8 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI:10.7225/toms.v12.n01.010
Kasra Pourkermani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过引入一种定义为一系列不同类型的合同以实现利润最大化的租船策略,探讨了散货航运业租船费率预测对船舶经营者的经济价值。假设船舶经营者根据季度超额租船费率预测,即定期租船和定期租船(现货)费率之间的差额,将船舶使用划分为定期租船和定期租船市场。船舶经营者使用递归预测方法并在两个位置之间切换租船策略。这个决定是基于经济衡量而不是统计意义。采用本文预测规则的船舶经营人所获得的经济效益超过了采用任意一种固定政策方法所获得的经济效益,并将用于证明有效市场假说的有效性。本文运用回归方法,对固定变量递归回归的季度现货价格提前两步进行预测,从而扩大了研究的分析范围。除了经济评价外,我们还应用了统计评价,发现所提出的模型优于历史平均预测。本文强调了业务平台内健全的多元化战略的重要性,以瞄准更有利可图的业务部门,并测试宏观经济指标和商品价格是否适合预测租船率。
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Time Charter or Trip Charter? An Assessment of Market Efficiency in Shipping Market
This paper explores the economic value of charter hire rate forecasts in the bulk shipping industry for ship operators by introducing a chartering strategy defined as a sequence of different types of contracts that maximises profit. Ship operators are assumed to divide ship use to trip charter and time charter market depending on the quarterly excess charter hire rate forecasts, i.e. the difference between time charter and trip charter (spot) rates. Ship operators use the recursive forecasting approach and switch the chartering strategy across the two positions. The decision is based on economic measurement rather than statistical significance. The economic benefits realized by ship operators who apply our forecasting rules exceed those derived from the fixed policy approach of using either alternative, and will be used to disprove the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. The paper applies the regression methodology and forecasts two steps ahead of quarterly spot prices regressed recursively on fixed variables, thus extending research in terms of the scope of analysis. We have applied statistical evaluation in addition to the economic evaluation and found that the proposed model outperforms the historical mean forecast. This paper emphasizes the importance of a sound diversification strategy within the business platform to target the more profitable business segment and test if macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices are satisfactory indicators for forecasting charter hire rate.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
12.50%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: ToMS is a scientific journal with international peer review which publishes papers in the following areas: ~ Marine Engineering, ~ Navigation, ~ Safety Systems, ~ Marine Ecology, ~ Marine Fisheries, ~ Hydrography, ~ Marine Automation and Electronics, ~ Transportation and Modes of Transport, ~ Marine Information Systems, ~ Maritime Law, ~ Management of Marine Systems, ~ Marine Finance, ~ Bleeding-Edge Technologies, ~ Multimodal Transport, ~ Psycho-social and Legal Aspects of Long-term Working Aboard. The journal is published in English as an open access journal, and as a classic paper journal (in limited editions). ToMS aims to present best maritime research from South East Europe, particularly the Mediterranean area. Articles will be double-blind reviewed by three reviewers. With the intention of providing an international perspective at least one of the reviewers will be from abroad. ToMS also promotes scientific collaboration with students and has a section titled Students’ ToMS. These papers also undergo strict peer reviews. Furthermore, the Journal publishes short reviews on significant papers, books and workshops in the fields of maritime science.
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