{"title":"定期租船还是航次租船?航运市场的市场效率评价","authors":"Kasra Pourkermani","doi":"10.7225/toms.v12.n01.010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the economic value of charter hire rate forecasts in the bulk shipping industry for ship operators by introducing a chartering strategy defined as a sequence of different types of contracts that maximises profit. Ship operators are assumed to divide ship use to trip charter and time charter market depending on the quarterly excess charter hire rate forecasts, i.e. the difference between time charter and trip charter (spot) rates. Ship operators use the recursive forecasting approach and switch the chartering strategy across the two positions. The decision is based on economic measurement rather than statistical significance. The economic benefits realized by ship operators who apply our forecasting rules exceed those derived from the fixed policy approach of using either alternative, and will be used to disprove the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. The paper applies the regression methodology and forecasts two steps ahead of quarterly spot prices regressed recursively on fixed variables, thus extending research in terms of the scope of analysis. We have applied statistical evaluation in addition to the economic evaluation and found that the proposed model outperforms the historical mean forecast. This paper emphasizes the importance of a sound diversification strategy within the business platform to target the more profitable business segment and test if macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices are satisfactory indicators for forecasting charter hire rate.","PeriodicalId":42576,"journal":{"name":"Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS","volume":"249 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Time Charter or Trip Charter? An Assessment of Market Efficiency in Shipping Market\",\"authors\":\"Kasra Pourkermani\",\"doi\":\"10.7225/toms.v12.n01.010\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper explores the economic value of charter hire rate forecasts in the bulk shipping industry for ship operators by introducing a chartering strategy defined as a sequence of different types of contracts that maximises profit. Ship operators are assumed to divide ship use to trip charter and time charter market depending on the quarterly excess charter hire rate forecasts, i.e. the difference between time charter and trip charter (spot) rates. Ship operators use the recursive forecasting approach and switch the chartering strategy across the two positions. The decision is based on economic measurement rather than statistical significance. The economic benefits realized by ship operators who apply our forecasting rules exceed those derived from the fixed policy approach of using either alternative, and will be used to disprove the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. The paper applies the regression methodology and forecasts two steps ahead of quarterly spot prices regressed recursively on fixed variables, thus extending research in terms of the scope of analysis. We have applied statistical evaluation in addition to the economic evaluation and found that the proposed model outperforms the historical mean forecast. This paper emphasizes the importance of a sound diversification strategy within the business platform to target the more profitable business segment and test if macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices are satisfactory indicators for forecasting charter hire rate.\",\"PeriodicalId\":42576,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS\",\"volume\":\"249 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-04-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.7225/toms.v12.n01.010\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MARINE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transactions on Maritime Science-ToMS","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7225/toms.v12.n01.010","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MARINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Time Charter or Trip Charter? An Assessment of Market Efficiency in Shipping Market
This paper explores the economic value of charter hire rate forecasts in the bulk shipping industry for ship operators by introducing a chartering strategy defined as a sequence of different types of contracts that maximises profit. Ship operators are assumed to divide ship use to trip charter and time charter market depending on the quarterly excess charter hire rate forecasts, i.e. the difference between time charter and trip charter (spot) rates. Ship operators use the recursive forecasting approach and switch the chartering strategy across the two positions. The decision is based on economic measurement rather than statistical significance. The economic benefits realized by ship operators who apply our forecasting rules exceed those derived from the fixed policy approach of using either alternative, and will be used to disprove the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. The paper applies the regression methodology and forecasts two steps ahead of quarterly spot prices regressed recursively on fixed variables, thus extending research in terms of the scope of analysis. We have applied statistical evaluation in addition to the economic evaluation and found that the proposed model outperforms the historical mean forecast. This paper emphasizes the importance of a sound diversification strategy within the business platform to target the more profitable business segment and test if macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices are satisfactory indicators for forecasting charter hire rate.
期刊介绍:
ToMS is a scientific journal with international peer review which publishes papers in the following areas: ~ Marine Engineering, ~ Navigation, ~ Safety Systems, ~ Marine Ecology, ~ Marine Fisheries, ~ Hydrography, ~ Marine Automation and Electronics, ~ Transportation and Modes of Transport, ~ Marine Information Systems, ~ Maritime Law, ~ Management of Marine Systems, ~ Marine Finance, ~ Bleeding-Edge Technologies, ~ Multimodal Transport, ~ Psycho-social and Legal Aspects of Long-term Working Aboard. The journal is published in English as an open access journal, and as a classic paper journal (in limited editions). ToMS aims to present best maritime research from South East Europe, particularly the Mediterranean area. Articles will be double-blind reviewed by three reviewers. With the intention of providing an international perspective at least one of the reviewers will be from abroad. ToMS also promotes scientific collaboration with students and has a section titled Students’ ToMS. These papers also undergo strict peer reviews. Furthermore, the Journal publishes short reviews on significant papers, books and workshops in the fields of maritime science.