高渗透水平下光伏发电经济价值的变化:加州试点案例研究

A. Mills, R. Wiser
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引用次数: 7

摘要

我们使用一种独特的投资和调度模型来估计随着渗透率的增加,光伏发电的长期经济价值,该模型捕捉了长期投资决策,同时还结合了详细的运营约束和全年每小时的时间分辨率。高时间分辨率和操作约束对于估算像PV这样的可变发电资源的经济价值非常重要,同样重要的还有适应新投资决策的建模框架的使用。本文将该模型应用于一个基于2030年加州的松散案例研究。将光伏边际经济价值分解为容量价值、能量值、日前预测误差成本和辅助服务。研究发现,在低渗透率下,光伏发电的价值比一块扁平电力的价值高出19美元/兆瓦时,这主要是由于光伏发电在低渗透率下的高容量价值。研究发现,当渗透率增加到30%时,光伏的价值大幅下降(超过60美元/兆瓦时),首先是由于容量值急剧下降,然后是能量值下降。前一天的预测误差和辅助服务成本,虽然不是微不足道的,但不会随着渗透率的增加而急剧变化。在短期内,如果专注于维持光伏的容量价值,那么随着渗透率的增加,减缓光伏价值变化的努力可能是最有效的。
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Changes in the economic value of photovoltaic generation at high penetration levels: A pilot case study of California
We estimate the long-run economic value of photovoltaic (PV) generation with increasing penetration using a unique investment and dispatch model that captures long-run investment decisions while also incorporating detailed operational constraints and hourly time resolution over a full year. High time resolution and operational constraints can be important for estimating the economic value of variable generation resources like PV, as is the use of a modeling framework that accommodates new investment decisions. The model is herein applied to a case study that is loosely based on California in 2030. The marginal economic value of PV is decomposed into capacity value, energy value, day-ahead forecast error cost, and ancillary services. The value of PV is found to exceed the value of a flat block of power by $19/MWh at low penetration, largely due to the high capacity value of PV at low penetration. The value of PV is found to drop considerably (by more than $60/MWh) as the penetration increases toward 30% on an energy basis, first due primarily to a steep drop in the capacity value followed by a decrease in the energy value. Day-ahead forecast error and ancillary service costs, though not insignificant, do not change as dramatically with increasing penetration. In the near term, efforts to mitigate changes in the value of PV with increasing penetration may be most effective if focused on maintaining the capacity value of PV.
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