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引用次数: 1

摘要

研究苏门答腊岛的旅游业,这是旅游目的地最多的岛屿之一。研究人员分析了旅游产业部门增长与人均收入和失业之间的关系。本研究采用面板回归,采用时间序列数据(2009-2020年)和截面数据(5个省份)。在分析回归方程之前,进行了一系列的检验。所进行的一系列检验是最佳模型选择检验(通过Chow检验、Hausman检验和Lagrange乘数检验)和经典假设检验(通过正态性检验、异方差检验和自相关检验)。根据面板回归模型的应用结果,选择第一种模型:固定效应模型,第二种模型:一般效应模型。所选的两个模型解释了旅游部门对人均收入有积极和显著的影响,对失业率有消极和显著的影响。研究结果表明,旅游业是提高人均收入和降低失业率的重要因素。与此同时,众所周知,旅游业对国内生产总值的贡献很大。因此,有必要刺激政府通过提高旅游业人力资源质量、基础设施和增加新的目的地来增加旅游业的贡献。
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The development of the tourism sector and its impact
Study of the tourism industry on the island of Sumatra, which is one of the islands with the most tourist destinations. The relationship between the growth of the tourism industry sector with per capita income and unemployment has been analyzed by researchers.This study was carried out using panel regression, where time series data (2009-2020) and cross-section data (5 provinces). A series of tests were performed before the regression equation was analyzed. The series of tests carried out are the best model selection test (through the Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test) and the Classical Assumption Test (through normality, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests). Based on the results of applying the panel regression model, the first model: Fixed Effects Model was selected, and the second model: General Effects Model.The two selected models explain that the tourism sector has a positive and significant effect on per capita income and a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate. The results of the study, that the tourism sector is an important factor in increasing per capita income and reducing unemployment rates. At the same time, it is known that the tourism sector has a significant share in contributing to the Gross Domestic Product. For this reason, it is necessary to stimulate the government to increase the contribution of the tourism sector through improving the quality of human resources in the tourism sector, infrastructure, and adding new destinations.
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