Forecasting System for Predicting the Dynamics of Oil Spill in a Tide-Dominated Estuary

Crude oil is predicted to become one of the most detrimental sources of anthropogenic pollution to estuaries. A comprehensive survey of oil spill literature reveals that oil spill transport in estuaries presents a gap in academic knowledge and literature. To address this gap, we present the first detailed analysis of estuarine oil spill dynamics. We develop and analyse a range of simulations for the Humber Estuary, using TELEMAC3D; a coupled hydrodynamic and oil spill models. The river boundary of the Humber Estuary is forced by discharge data, while the offshore boundary is driven by tidal height data, including estuarine water temperature and salinity. The calibrated model shows good agreement with measured data during the validation process. Results show that: (a) the time of oil release within a tidal cycle significantly influences oil slick transport; and (b) the tidal range significantly influences oil slick impacted area and overall distance travelled, as oil slick released under spring tide is approximately double the oil slick size under neap tides and travels on average 71% farther. This study emphasises the need to: a) understand how the interaction of river discharge and tidal range influences oil slick transport; and (b) be aware of the time of release within a tidal cycle, to efficiently deal with oil spills. Findings should be useful for future operational oil spill response and could be equally applicable to other tide-dominated estuaries.