确定性可靠性指标对无管制多目标发电扩展规划的影响

Rizki Firmansyah Setya Budi, Sarjiya, S. P. Hadi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在以往的研究中,已经建立了一个无管制的多目标发电扩展规划模型。研究采用负荷损失概率(LOLP)作为可靠性目标函数。LOLP是一种概率可靠性指标,其缺点是计算时间短。另一方面,确定性可靠性指标在计算时间上具有优势。确定性可靠性指标为储备边际(RM)。本研究将采用两种可靠性指标方案进行DMGEP。场景分为LOLP场景和RM场景。本研究旨在分析使用RM对DMGEP的影响。为了进行影响分析,需要对LOLP场景结果和RM场景结果进行比较。根据两种情景的结果,可以知道RM情景的影响。采用RM可使计算时间缩短70.7%,并增加电厂总装机容量。RM场景的总装机容量比LOLP场景的总装机容量高3.2%。
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The impact of a deterministic reliability index on deregulated multi-objective generation expansion planning
A deregulated multi-objective generation expansion planning (DMGEP) has been modeled in the previous research. The research used loss of load probability (LOLP) as a reliability objective function. LOLP is a probabilistic reliability index that has a disadvantage on computation time. On the other hand, there is a deterministic reliability index that has an advantage on computation time. The deterministic reliability index is reserve margin (RM). This study will conduct a DMGEP by using two reliability index scenarios. The scenarios are LOLP scenario and RM scenario. This research aims to analyze the impact of using RM on DMGEP. To do the impact analysis, it is needed a comparison between LOLP scenario results and RM scenario results. Based on the results of both scenarios, it can be known the impacts of RM scenario. Using RM can accelerate computation time by 70.7% and cause additional total installed capacity of power plants. The total installed capacity in the RM scenario is higher of 3.2% than the LOLP scenario.
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