SARS-CoV-2废水浓度和相关的纵向血清流行率:菌株突变、COVID-19疫苗接种后效果和住院负担预测的空间分析。

Rochelle H Holm, Grzegorz A Rempala, Boseung Choi, J Michael Brick, Alok R Amraotkar, Rachel J Keith, Eric C Rouchka, Julia H Chariker, Kenneth E Palmer, Ted Smith, Aruni Bhatnagar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:自新冠肺炎大流行早期以来,已测量了SARS-CoV-2废水浓度,作为社区流行率的替代指标。然而,我们对废水浓度以及新冠肺炎疫苗接种对住院率衡量的总体疾病负担的影响的了解仍然有限。方法:我们使用2021年4月至8月的每周严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型废水浓度,血清流行率的分层随机抽样,以及空间关联的疫苗接种和住院数据。我们的易感(S)、接种疫苗(V)、变异特异性感染(I1和I2)、康复(R)和血清阳性(T)模型(SVI2RT)纵向跟踪了患病率。这与废水浓度有关,用于菌株突变、疫苗接种效果和总体住院负担的空间分析。研究结果:我们发现废水浓度与估计的社区流行率之间存在很强的线性相关性(r=0.916)。根据相应的回归模型,64%的县疫苗接种率转化为严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型发病率下降约57%。在研究期间,严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型德尔塔变异株出现的估计影响是感染人数增加了7倍以上,相当于废水浓度增加了12倍以上。住院负担与废水浓度在滞后1周时相关性最强(r=0.963)。我们估计,在研究期间,社区疫苗接种活动使每日入院人数减少了约63%。这种保护作用被严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型德尔塔毒株突变的出现所抵消。解释:废水样本可用于估计疫苗接种和住院负担的影响。我们的研究强调了疫苗接种后持续环境监测的重要性,并为环境流行病学监测提供了概念验证。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky.

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected I1 and I2, recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model SVI2RT tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

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