Emission reduction prediction and policy simulation of prefabricated buildings using system dynamics

Abstract

Under the national "double carbon" goal, taking the prefabricated building as the research goal, the system dynamics model of prefabricated building is constructed using Vensim software. Draw the causal circuit diagram and stock flow diagram, determine the model equation, study the relationship and action mechanism between different influencing factors of prefabricated buildings. Simulate the change trend of carbon emission of prefabricated buildings under the time series, investigate the sensitivity of eight types of industrial policy changes to the system. Taking Xi'an city as an example, the results show that the market share of prefabricated buildings in Xi'an city will reach 52%, and the total emission reduction will reach 12.56 million tons in 2030. Industrial policies play an obvious role in promoting the development of prefabricated buildings. The implementation of construction policies, fiscal policies, technical policies and ecological development policies have good effects, which plays a great role in promoting the development of prefabricated buildings and energy conservation and emission reduction in Xi'an City, and provide references for emission reduction in other cities.