An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Logistics Industry through I-O Table: Focusing on China’s logistics industry

Xinyue Tian, Xindan Zhang, Kihyung Bae
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to make econometric analysis on the economic effects of China’s logistics industry by using the China industry association table, and provide help for the promotion of China’s logistics industry policy in the future. For this reason, 17 industrial fields, including 5 fields of transportation equipment and 12 fields of transportation service industry, are classified as logistics industry in the 2020 industrial association table issued by the China Bureau of statistics in 2022, and the industrial association table of China’s logistics industry for all 28 industries is compiled and analyzed. The analysis results show that, first of all, the production inducement coefficient of China’s logistics industry is 2.7956, and the line cooperation coefficient is 4.6270, indicating that China’s logistics industry is a basic strategic industry supporting the development of national economy. Second, the influence coefficient (backward chain effect) of China’s logistics industry is 1.0466, and the sensitivity coefficient (forward chain effect) is 1.7322, both greater than 1. China’s logistics industry is an intermediate demand manufacturing industry. Third, the final demand of China’s logistics industry is 8382 billion yuan for input into the national economy. The total production induced amount is 626916.8 trillion yuan (38783.5 trillion yuan, 6.2%) and the value-added induced amount is 224227.75 billion yuan (13718.8 trillion yuan, 6.1%) respectively. The income induced amount is 11420.4 trillion yuan (691.34 billion yuan, 6.1%) respectively, The induced amount of production tax is 23469.2 billion yuan (1379.3 trillion yuan, 5.9%) in the logistics industry. Fourth, China’s logistics industry has a total of 30627 labor inducing effects, including 849 direct labor inducing personnel and 29778 indirect labor inducing personnel, showing its role as an employment creating industry.
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基于I-O表的物流业经济效应分析——以中国物流业为例
本研究的目的是利用中国行业协会表对中国物流业的经济效应进行计量分析,为未来中国物流业政策的推广提供帮助。为此,在中国统计局于2022年发布的《2020年行业关联表》中,将交通运输设备5个领域、交通运输服务业12个领域等17个行业领域归类为物流业,并对全部28个行业的中国物流业行业关联表进行编制分析。分析结果表明,首先,中国物流业的生产诱导系数为2.7956,线路协同系数为4.6270,表明中国物流业是支撑国民经济发展的基础性战略性产业。其次,中国物流业的影响系数(后向链效应)为1.0466,敏感性系数(前向链效应)为1.7322,均大于1。中国物流业是一个中间需求制造业。第三,中国物流业最终需求为国民经济投入8382亿元。总产值诱导额为626916.8亿元(38783.5亿元,6.2%),增加值诱导额为2242277.5亿元(13718.8亿元,6.1%)。物流业收入诱导金额11420.4亿元(6913.4亿元,6.1%),生产税诱导金额234692亿元(1379.3亿元,5.9%)。第四,中国物流业共有劳务诱导效应30627人,其中直接劳务诱导人员849人,间接劳务诱导人员29778人,显示出其创造就业的产业作用。
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