Downs Wettbewerbs-These im Test: Eine Studie zu den österreichischen Bürgermeisterdirektwahlen

IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Zeitschrift fur Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI:10.1007/s12286-023-00574-8
Armin Mühlböck, Birgit Mitter, Franziska Obermair
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Abstract

Abstract Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.
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唐的竞争:一项关于奥地利市长直选的研究
对势均力敌的预期是否会促使更多的人去投票?尽管在过去几十年里,选举竞争日益激烈,各级政治战线也日益坚固,但可以看到投票率的下降,这是一种令人费解的发展。尽管存在异常情况,但之前的研究表明,在势均力敌的竞选和投票率增加之间存在明显的正相关趋势。根据“理性选择”理论的观点,势均力敌或胜负未定的竞选前景会增加个人投票的主观权重,从而促使更多选民投票。事实上,“预期接近度”是选民投票率研究中最常测试的独立变量之一。但是,在大多数情况下,这个因素只是事后衡量的。这种测量方法使用实际选举的结果来推断竞选的“接近程度”。然而,这些衡量方法的有效性较低,因为它们没有衡量选举前决定性时期的“接近度”。我们想通过分析自1991年以来奥地利市长直选的所有决选,对这种效应进行检验,因为它们允许事前测量。第一轮投票和决选暂时接近。因此,第一轮投票结果可以作为第二轮投票“预期接近程度”的直接指标。选民的变化,如果有的话,也只是在两次投票之间发生了微不足道的变化。此外,影响投票率的社会经济因素可以保持不变,提高了检验的效度。这项研究的结果强调了“亲密度”对选举投票率的积极和独立影响。奥地利的市长竞选在第一轮中越势均力敌,随后的决选投票率就越高。研究还表明,社会经济因素对投票率有独立而强烈的影响。我们的研究不仅为“预期接近度”对选民投票率的影响提供了有效的检验,而且还构成了对奥地利所有直接市长选举的完整数据收集的开创性工作。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
13.30%
发文量
30
期刊介绍: Comparative Governance and Politics – Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft (ZfVP) was founded in 2007. It is an internationally renowned journal that adheres to the highest standards of quality (double-blind peer review). The journal is published quarterly, and it is the first bilingual (German and English) journal that focuses on innovative research results in the area of comparative politics. The journal is a central academic forum for outstanding research achievements in the field of comparative politics, and covers the entire range of comparative research within the field. The journal publishes conceptual, methodological, and empirical studies from all the various research areas within the discipline of political science. Special Issues and Special Sections Special Issues and Special Sections offer the opportunity to present focal topics of comparative research. All submissions undergo a double-blind peer review procedure, which is conducted within the scope of a consultation between the author and the editors through our online submission system. The editors will also initiate the creation of potential special issues through open calls for papers. At the same time, the editors always appreciate suggestions and initiatives from the comparative studies community. Proposals for Special Issues and Special Sections are also subjected to an internal evaluation process. Our Special Issues are published as one of the four quarterly issues and usually consist of six to ten articles, accompanied by an introduction written by the guest editor(s). Special Sections, on the other hand, are a topical focus in one of the four quarterly issues, consisting of three to five articles, which are supplemented by a guest editor’s preface.
期刊最新文献
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