{"title":"Downs Wettbewerbs-These im Test: Eine Studie zu den österreichischen Bürgermeisterdirektwahlen","authors":"Armin Mühlböck, Birgit Mitter, Franziska Obermair","doi":"10.1007/s12286-023-00574-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.","PeriodicalId":44200,"journal":{"name":"Zeitschrift fur Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Zeitschrift fur Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-023-00574-8","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.
期刊介绍:
Comparative Governance and Politics – Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft (ZfVP) was founded in 2007. It is an internationally renowned journal that adheres to the highest standards of quality (double-blind peer review). The journal is published quarterly, and it is the first bilingual (German and English) journal that focuses on innovative research results in the area of comparative politics.
The journal is a central academic forum for outstanding research achievements in the field of comparative politics, and covers the entire range of comparative research within the field. The journal publishes conceptual, methodological, and empirical studies from all the various research areas within the discipline of political science.
Special Issues and Special Sections
Special Issues and Special Sections offer the opportunity to present focal topics of comparative research. All submissions undergo a double-blind peer review procedure, which is conducted within the scope of a consultation between the author and the editors through our online submission system.
The editors will also initiate the creation of potential special issues through open calls for papers. At the same time, the editors always appreciate suggestions and initiatives from the comparative studies community. Proposals for Special Issues and Special Sections are also subjected to an internal evaluation process. Our Special Issues are published as one of the four quarterly issues and usually consist of six to ten articles, accompanied by an introduction written by the guest editor(s). Special Sections, on the other hand, are a topical focus in one of the four quarterly issues, consisting of three to five articles, which are supplemented by a guest editor’s preface.