Aiming at the problem of ultra-low NOx emission from hot blast stoves in the ironmaking process, this paper takes the external combustion hot blast stove that used in a domestic steel plant as the research object. Through systematic numerical simulations, the influences of process parameters (e.g., the air excess coefficient α, preheating temperature of gas Tgas and air Tair, and gas flow rate Vgas) on the generation of NOx during the combustion process in the stove and the change of the composition of NOx in the flue gas were investigated. The mechanism of thermal NOx generation and the effective control scheme for high temperature combustion conditions are discussed. The NOx emission prediction model is established on this basis. The results show that when α is 1.02, the combustion effect is better, the gas is completely burnt out, and the NO emission is less. When α is about 1.60, the NO concentration is maximum. Increasing the preheating temperature can effectively increase the temperature in the stove. For every incremental preheating temperature with 100 K, the average temperature at the top of the regenerative chamber can be increased by about 20 K. When α is fixed, Vgas can reduce the retention time of the gas in the stove and the total amount of NO generation. It is proved that the prediction model based on the numerical results can achieve low NO emission under the condition of higher temperature in the stove, which will provide effective references for the research and industrial production of different types of hot blast stoves.